Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River Basin

Wise, Erika K.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Pederson, Gregory T.; St-Jacques, Jeannine Marie

doi:10.1175/jhm-d-17-0155.1

Cited by 41 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Lastly, the hydroclimatic analysis of the MRB presented in this paper serves as a complement to the hydroclimatic analysis of the Missouri River Basin (a major tributary of the MRB) presented by Wise et al. ().…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…Wise et al. () also reported that a long‐term negative trend (for years 1912 through 2011) in upper Missouri River Basin flows and a decrease in upper Missouri River snow vs. rain fractions (for years 1936 through 2011) were associated with warming spring temperatures. Wise et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Recently, Wise et al. () completed a comprehensive study of the hydroclimate of the Missouri River Basin (a major tributary of the MRB). Wise et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wise et al. () analyzed observed and modeled hydroclimatic data in the Missouri River Basin and reported that 72% of Missouri River runoff is generated by two regions: (1) the headwaters in the upper Missouri River Basin and (2) the lowest portion of the basin near the mouth. Wise et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wise et al. () concluded that these hydroclimatic changes in the upper Missouri River indicate that the upper Missouri River Basin may not continue to reliably provide flow contributions to the lower Missouri River Basin in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

McCabe

Wolock

2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Model estimated monthly water balance (WB) components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff [R]) for 848 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the MRB WB for water years 1901 through 2014. Results indicate the MRB can be divided into nine subregions with similar temporal variability in R. The WB analyses indicated ~79% of total water‐year MRB runoff is generated by four of the nine subregions and most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus (S) water during the months of December through May. Furthermore, the analyses showed temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the western U.S. and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the eastern U.S. coast. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the MRB. In the context of paleo‐climate reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, since about 1900 the MRB has experienced wetter conditions than were experienced during the previous 500 years.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Recently, Wise et al. () completed a comprehensive study of the hydroclimate of the Missouri River Basin (a major tributary of the MRB). Wise et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

McCabe

Wolock

2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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The changing relationship between the upper and lower Missouri River basins during drought

Woodhouse

Wise

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Missouri River basin is subject to extremes in both high and low flow, with damaging floods and droughts occurring over the instrumental period. Recent events of the 2000s are notable for rapid transitions from dry to wet conditions, and for the different timing of these conditions in the upper and lower basins. This study focuses on drought in the upper and lower Missouri River basins (defined as above and below the Missouri/Yellowstone River confluence), with particular attention to the climate and synoptic scale patterns during drought in the basin's two main source regions over the years 1912–2011. Six drought events were identified in the upper basin, ranging from 2 to 12 years, and eight events were identified in the lower basin, lasting from 2 to 16 years. Almost all upper and lower basin droughts overlapped in time, but only the 1930s drought occurred in both basins over the exact same years. Hydroclimate analyses show that the worst‐case scenario for basin‐wide drought conditions includes a dry winter in the upper basin and a dry spring/summer in the lower basin, accompanied by warm temperatures. The recent 2000s drought in the Missouri River basin displayed anomalous characteristics relative to past droughts, including warm temperatures across the entire basin, particularly in spring and summer, a weakened Great Plains Low Level Jet, and a lag in the upper basin recovery time. In the past, upper basin flows have compounded or ameliorated regional flooding or basin‐wide drought conditions, but a decreasing trend in the upper basin contribution to total Missouri River flow is evident and expected to continue, suggesting its role relative to the lower basin is changing.

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Projected changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest

Ayers

Villarini

Schilling

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Baseflow is an essential water resource because it is the groundwater discharged to streams and represents long‐term storage. Understanding its future changes is a major concern for water supply and ecosystem health. This study examines the impacts of climate and agriculture on monthly baseflow in the U.S. Midwest through the end of the 21st century. We use a statistical approach to evaluate three scenarios. The first scenario is based on downscaled and bias corrected global climate model (GCM) outputs and the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, and agriculture is held constant (and equal to the mean from 2013 to 2019). In the next two scenarios, climate is held constant (2010–2019) to isolate the impact of agriculture on baseflow. In terms of agricultural changes, we consider scenarios representative of either increases or decreases with respect to the production of corn and soybeans. Changes in the climate system point to increases in baseflow that are likely a result of increased precipitation and antecedent wetness. Seasonally, warmer temperature in the winter and spring (i.e., February to July) is expected to cause increasing trends in baseflow. Changes in land use showed that agriculture would either mitigate the impact of climate change or possibly amplify it. Expanding corn and soybean areas would increase baseflow in the Corn Belt region. On the other hand, converting land back to perennial vegetation would decrease baseflow throughout the entire year. Despite its simplicity, this study can provide basic information to understand where to expect adverse effects on baseflow and thus improve land management practices in those areas.

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Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River Basin

Cited by 41 publications

References 49 publications

Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

The changing relationship between the upper and lower Missouri River basins during drought

Projected changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest

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