Hydrodynamical Methods of the Short- and Long-Range Weather Forecasting in the USSR

Blinova, E. N.; Kibel, I. A.

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v9i4.9133

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…The transient part of the planetary waves has been studied observationally in surface harmonics a t one or two levels by Eliasen & Machenauer (1965) and Deland & Lin (1967). Theoretical studies and spectral forecast models have been conducted by Blinova (1953Blinova ( , 1956Blinova ( , 1957Blinova ( , 1961Blinova ( , 1964, Mashkovich (1957Mashkovich ( , 1960Mashkovich ( , 1961Mashkovich ( , 1963Mashkovich ( , 1964b, Eliasen & Machenauer (1966) and Deland & Lin (1967). Mashkovich (1961Mashkovich ( , 1964b predicted the existence of slow moving modes forced by the interactions of the f a s t moving modes, which were observed but not recognized by Eliasen & Machenauer (1965).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the transient part of the atmospheric planetary waves

Bradley

Wiin‐Nielsen

1968

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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The structure and motion of the atmospheric planetary waves were studied using a simple time filter and the method of characteristic patterns. Three universal pressure modes are found, independent of the zonal and meridional wavenumbers and of the speed of the wave: modes 1 and 3 have a large vertical mean value, and move with a speed close to the Rossby-Haurwitz speed of the dominant meridional characteristic pattern. The strongly divergent vertical mode 2 has a mean velocity close to the solid rotation of the atmosphere in the longest waves, and close to the Rossby-Haurwitz velocity in the short waves.Four meridional characteristic patterns are universal for the fastest moving waves, but individual meridional structures are found for modes forced by the seasonal cycle and by the interactions of the fast moving modes.Typical periods for the exchange of energy between modes are much shorter than the typical periods of fluctuations in the observed phase velocities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the transient part of the atmospheric planetary waves

Bradley

Wiin‐Nielsen

1968

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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“…The forecasts of mean monthly temperature anomalies, for example, are rated according to the percentage of the total forecast area over which the error in the forecast does not exceed 20 per cent of the "mean monthly climatological temperature amplitude." On this scale, according to Blinova (1957), the average accuracy of the forecasts of mean monthly temperature anomalies is 76 per cent. A breakdown of this figure for the individual years 1952 to 1955 is given by Mashkovich and Kheifetz (1957), who also list comparable figures for the accuracy of subjective forecasts prepared in the Central Institute of Forecasting.…”

Section: Accuracy Of Dynamical Long-range Forecasts In the Ussrmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The forecast area covers the entire northern hemisphere north of about 20N lat. According to Blinova (1957), the period of such forecasts ranges "from several days to several tens of days." Examples of height forecasts up to eight days have been published.…”

Section: D\ Sin6 D\mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The forecast area covers the Eurasian continent. According to Blinova (1957), the period of such forecasts ranges from 40 to 70 days. Mashkovich and Kheifetz state that mean monthly anomaly forecasts are issued to the Department of Long-Range Weather Forecasts of the Central Institute of Forecasting on the 25th day of a given month and cover the whole of the second month following it-e.g., the mean monthly temperature forecast for April is issued on 25 February.…”

Section: D\ Sin6 D\mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of the factual material included in this review was drawn from translations of referenced papers. A survey article in English by Blinova (1957) is an excellent source for further information. In questions of interpretation and speculation, the writer has been guided by impressions received at first hand from Soviet representatives at the September 1957 meeting of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics in Toronto and by impressions received at second hand from participants in the June 1957 Symposium on Numerical Prediction in Stockholm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long-Range Weather Forecasting in the Soviet Union

Baum

Thompson

1959

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Soviet developments in long-range weather forecasting are described and evaluated. Part I (by W. A. Baum), dealing with non-dynamical methods, is based entirely on a literature survey. Part II (by P. D. Thompson), dealing with dynamical methods, is based partially on direct contact with Russian colleagues. Operational forecasts based upon the synoptic-empirical Multanovsky method, as modified during the last generation, appear to have been unsuccessful. This apparent failure, only very recently admitted, seems to stem in part from an almost blind adherence to the complex and somewhat mystical Multanovsky philosophy. There are definite indications that a sharp break with the past took place in the mid-fifties, but it is too soon to discern a clear trend or to estimate the impact of this break on operational capabilities. No attempts appear to have been made to apply modern statistical approaches to the problem. Soviet understanding of the basic theory of dynamical long-range prediction does not seem to surpass ours. However, Russian meteorologists have been relatively forward-looking in the application of dynamical methods on an experimental or routine basis. Forecasts of surface mean monthly temperature anomalies, for the Eurasian continent, have been prepared by dynamical methods since 1952. Their accuracy appears not significantly different from that of subjective forecasts.

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Modelling the Climate System: An Overview

Gramelsberger

Feichter

2011

Climate Change and Policy

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Hydrodynamical Methods of the Short- and Long-Range Weather Forecasting in the USSR

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

On the transient part of the atmospheric planetary waves

On the transient part of the atmospheric planetary waves

Long-Range Weather Forecasting in the Soviet Union

Modelling the Climate System: An Overview

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