Hydroelectricity Modeling for Low‐Carbon and No‐Carbon Grids: Empirical Operational Parameters for Optimization and Dispatch Models

Abstract

Hydroelectric power has unusual technical characteristics that could become more valuable as the penetration of variable generation renewables grows, but its use for electricity generation is constrained by complex physical, safety, and socioenvironmental considerations. Hydroelectricity can therefore be difficult to represent in national‐scale energy models, and is frequently presumed to be either overly flexible or inflexible. While a few grid models address this complexity via detailed hydraulic process models, more simplified optimization and dispatch models could benefit from the use of empirical parameter values. In this study, we combine a new data set comprising 7.8 million flow‐hours of data from 2011 to 2016 at 158 dams across the United States with monthly and hourly generation data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to elucidate such empirical constraints for the continental United States. We introduce an approach for estimating power generation from hourly water discharge, then present regionally resolved interannual seasonal and diurnal generation patterns; frequency analyses of ramp rates; minimum and maximum generation rates; daily reversals; and load duration curves, all available interactively with a new data visualization tool. We suggest that due largely to hydropower's role as power generation that also serves non‐energy purposes, it acts as a predictable variable generator with constrained dispatchability, more like a supply side analog to demand response resources than like a battery. This observation is particularly relevant for high penetration renewable energy scenarios, given hydroelectric generators' expected value for grid stabilization and load balancing.