Hydrogeochemical anomalies in Kamchatka (Russia)

Bella, Francesco; Biagi, P. F.; Caputo, Michèle; Cozzi, E.; Monica, Giuseppe Della; Ermini, A.; Gordeez, E.I.; Khatkevich, Y. M.; Martinelli, Giovanni; Plastino, W.; Scandone, Roberto; Sgrigna, Vittorio; Zilpimiani, D.

doi:10.1016/s0079-1946(98)00120-7

Cited by 32 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The data bank was established by the end of 1997. Meanwhile, we began a study of the relationship between the hydrogeochemical data and seismicity; preliminary results were recently presented (BELLA et al, 1998;KINGSLEY et al, 1999;BIAGI et al, 1999a,b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater Ion Content Precursors of Strong Earthquakes in Kamchatka (Russia)

Biagi¹,

Ermini

Kingsley

et al. 2000

Pure appl. geophys.

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The Kamchatka peninsula, located in the far east of Russia, is a geologically active margin where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the North American and Eurasia plates. This area is characterised by frequent and strong seismic activity (magnitudes reaching 8.6) and epicentres are generally distributed offshore along the eastern coast of the peninsula. For many years, hydrogeochemicals have been sampled with a mean interval of three days to measure the most common ions in the groundwater of five deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula. In the last decade, five earthquakes with M\ 6.5 have occurred at distances less than 250 km from these wells. These earthquakes were powerful enough for them to be considered as potential originators of precursors. In order to reveal possible precursors of these earthquakes, we analysed the groundwater ion contents. The quasi-periodic annual variation was filtered out, together with other slow trends, and then we smoothed out the high frequency fluctuations that arise from errors in a single measurement. When examining the data, we labelled each signal with an amplitude greater than three times the standard deviation as an irregularity and we made a first attempt at defining an anomaly as an irregularity occurring simultaneously in more than one parameter at each well. In a second definition we used the existence of an irregularity occurring simultaneously in each ion at more than one well. Then, on the basis of past results worldwide and the time interval between the earthquakes observed, we chose 158 days as the maximum temporal window between a possible anomaly and the subsequent earthquake. With the first anomaly definition we identified 6 anomalies with 4 possible successes and 2 failures. For the five earthquakes considered capable of producing precursors we obtained precursors in three cases. With the second anomaly definition we identified 10 anomalies with 7 possible successes and 3 failures and we obtained precursors in four of the five earthquakes. A schematic model explaining aspects of the complex relationship linking earthquakes and ion content anomalies is also presented.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater Ion Content Precursors of Strong Earthquakes in Kamchatka (Russia)

Biagi¹,

Ermini

Kingsley

et al. 2000

Pure appl. geophys.

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“…The area of highest seismicity localized in the depth range between 0 and 40 km represents a narrow stripe with a length of approximately 200 km along the east coast of Kamchatka, which is bounded by a deepsea trench on the east (Fedotov et al, 1985). of groundwater prior to several large earthquakes (Kopylova et al, 1994;Bella et al, 1998;Biagi et al 2000Biagi et al , 2004Biagi et al , 2006Khatkevich and Ryabinin, 2006).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

Polyakov

Ryabinin

Solovyeva

et al. 2014

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics.We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the subsequent processing of brain activity signals generated in specific types of rats (kept in laboratory settings) who reportedly sense an impending earthquake few days prior to the event. We illustrate the identification of short-term precursors using the groundwater sodiumion concentration data in the time frame from 2010 to 2014 (a major earthquake occurred on February 28, 2013), recorded at two different sites in the south-eastern part of the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. The candidate precursors are observed as synchronized peaks in the nonstationarity factors, introduced within the flicker-noise spectroscopy framework for signal processing, for the high-frequency component of both time series. These peaks correspond to the local reorganizations of the underlying geophysical system that are believed to precede strong earthquakes. The rodent brain activity signals are selected as potential "immediate" (up to 2 weeks) deterministic precursors due to the recent scientific reports confirming that rodents sense imminent earthquakes and the population-genetic model of Kirshvink (2000) showing how a reliable genetic seismic escape response system may have developed over the period of several hundred million years in certain animals. The use of brain activity signals, such as electroencephalograms, in contrast to conventional abnormal animal behavior observations, enables one to apply the standard "input-

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“…1 a single mark is used. In the past, different analyses were performed in order to reveal possible correlations between anomalous variations of the hydro-geochemical parameters and the seismic activity ( Bella et al, 1998;Biagi et al, 1999Biagi et al, , 2000aBiagi et al, , b, 2001aBiagi et al, , b, 2003Biagi et al, , 2004aKingsley et al, 1999Kingsley et al, , 2001). On this subject here we present a further investigation that has pointed out clear groundwater chemical anomalies on the occasion of the March 1992 earthquake (M=7.1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%