Hydrologic regime and the conservation of salmon life history diversity

Beechie, Timothy J.; Buhle, Eric R.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Fullerton, Aimee H.; Holsinger, Lisa M.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2006.01.019

Cited by 169 publications

(175 citation statements)

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“…The positive response of rainbow trout likely reflects preadaptation to this flow regime, which is characteristic of much of the species' native range (14). Other researchers have recognized that climate-driven shifts in flow regime will play a role in changes to stream biota and aquatic ecosystems (9,26), and some have modeled climate-related flow effects on species at the stream scale (27). However, until now this has not been extended to broad scales due to a lack of quantitative estimates of hydrologic metrics under future conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Wenger

Isaak

Luce

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

519

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Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km 2 ), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.global change | hydrology | invasive species | niche model | distribution modeling N early all broad-scale analyses of climate effects on freshwater species have focused on temperature shifts, to the exclusion of other climate-driven drivers. Although temperature is a critical determinant of metabolic and physical processes (1), important ecosystem effects on streams and rivers may also be mediated by flow regime and biotic interactions. Flow regime has been described as a "master variable" (2) that controls or influences many aspects of the physical aquatic environment, as well as the timing of reproduction and migration of many organisms (3). Biotic interactions are increasingly recognized as important components of climate-species relationships (4, 5), but are rarely included in projections of species distributions under future climates, with some notable exceptions (6). Competitive interactions in particular are not commonly modeled (but see ref. 7), despite interest in invasive-native species interaction under climate change (8). It is likely that all three factors-temperature, flow regime, and biotic interactions-will play important roles in future aquatic species distributional shifts (8-11).Trout serve as excellent model organisms for examining how these mechanisms could alter population dynamics and species distributio...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Wenger

Isaak

Luce

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

519

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“…Subyearling outmigrants are likely to be more resilient to the effects of climate change than are yearling migrants, which rear in fresh water for a year, potentially exposing them to high temperatures and low flows during the summer. Also, yearling migrants primarily spawn in the upper watershed (16), where climate impacts are projected to be greatest.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration

Battin

Wiley

Ruckelshaus

et al. 2007

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

342

301

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Throughout the world, efforts are under way to restore watersheds, but restoration planning rarely accounts for future climate change. Using a series of linked models of climate, land cover, hydrology, and salmon population dynamics, we investigated the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of proposed habitat restoration efforts designed to recover depleted Chinook salmon populations in a Pacific Northwest river basin. Model results indicate a large negative impact of climate change on freshwater salmon habitat. Habitat restoration and protection can help to mitigate these effects and may allow populations to increase in the face of climate change. The habitat deterioration associated with climate change will, however, make salmon recovery targets much more difficult to attain. Because the negative impacts of climate change in this basin are projected to be most pronounced in relatively pristine, high-elevation streams where little restoration is possible, climate change and habitat restoration together are likely to cause a spatial shift in salmon abundance. River basins that span the current snow line appear especially vulnerable to climate change, and salmon recovery plans that enhance lower-elevation habitats are likely to be more successful over the next 50 years than those that target the higher-elevation basins likely to experience the greatest snow-rain transition.Chinook salmon ͉ hydrologic model ͉ population model ͉ Snohomish River ͉ stream flow O ver the past decade, billions of dollars have been spent on the restoration of aquatic habitats throughout the United States (1). In the northwestern U.S., aquatic habitat restoration has been driven largely by the Endangered Species Act, under which several species of Pacific salmon have been listed. The listings have led to the development of salmon recovery plans for watersheds throughout the region. Long-term freshwater habitat protection and restoration projects are central to all plans. Planners rely heavily on fish habitat models to evaluate the potential effectiveness of proposed restoration strategies, and numerous models have been developed to predict restoration effects. In almost all cases, these models assume stationary future climate conditions when assessing how restoration will affect fish abundance and productivity. Given the increasing certainty that climate change is accelerating, models that ignore the potential effects of future climate may generate misleading predictions of the relative benefits of different recovery strategies.The northwestern U.S. has warmed by between 0.7 and 0.9°C during the 20th century. Since 1950, average annual air temperatures at the majority of meteorological stations in the region have risen by Ϸ0.25°C/decade (2), and climate models predict another 1.5-3.2°C increase by the middle of the 21st century (3). Higher air temperatures are likely to increase water temperatures, which could be harmful to salmon during the spawning, incubation, and rearing stages of their life cycle (4). Warmer temperatures a...

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“…Variability in juvenile size, timing and habitat use during downstream migration to the ocean ensures that some component of the population in dynamic environments experiences favorable riverine, estuarine, and ocean conditions (Beechie et al 2006;Sattherthwaite et al 2014). The extent to which fish have access to spatially diverse habitats influences their rate of growth, movement, and phenotypic diversity, and has been shown to stabilize inter-annual variation in juvenile production (Thorson et al 2014 (Miller et al 2010;Sturrock et al 2015).…”

Section: Application Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Science Advancements Key to Increasing Management Value of Life Stage Monitoring Networks for Endangered Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon in California

Johnson¹,

Windell²,

Brandes³

et al. 2017

SFEWS

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A robust monitoring network that provides quantitative information about the status of imperiled species at key life stages and geographic locations over time is fundamental for sustainable management of fisheries resources. For anadromous species, management actions in one geographic domain can substantially affect abundance of subsequent life stages that span broad geographic regions. Quantitative metrics (e.g., abundance, movement, survival, life history diversity, and condition) at multiple life stages are needed to inform how management actions (e.g., hatcheries, harvest, hydrology, and habitat restoration) influence salmon population dynamics. The existing monitoring network for endangered Sacramento River winterrun Chinook Salmon (SRWRC, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in California's Central Valley was compared to conceptual models developed for each life stage and geographic region of the life cycle to identify relevant SRWRC metrics. We concluded that the current monitoring network was insufficient to diagnose when (life stage) and where (geographic domain) chronic or episodic reductions in SRWRC cohorts occur, precluding within-and among-year comparisons. The strongest quantitative data exist in the Upper Sacramento River, where abundance estimates are generated for adult spawners and emigrating juveniles. However, once SRWRC leave the upper river, our knowledge of their identity,

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Hydrologic regime and the conservation of salmon life history diversity

Cited by 169 publications

References 35 publications

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration

Science Advancements Key to Increasing Management Value of Life Stage Monitoring Networks for Endangered Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon in California

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