Hydrological Aspects of Weather Prediction and Flood Warnings: Report of the Ninth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.; Smith, J. Dungan; Businger, Steven; Doswell, Charles A.; Doyle, James D.; Duffy, Chris; Foufoula‐Georgiou, Efi; Graziano, T.; James, L. Douglas; Krajewski, V.; LeMone, Margaret A.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Mass, Clifford F.; Pielke, R. A.; Ray, Peter S.; Rutledge, Steven A.; Schaake, John C.; Zipser, Edward J.

doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<2665:haowpa>2.3.co;2

Cited by 61 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Even if blueprints for ensemble streamflow forecasting are older than one decade (e.g. Schaake et al, 1998;Droegemeier et al, 2000), probabilistic forecasting is still relatively novel in hydrology. However the transfer of the established methodologies used in meteorology may lead to an accelerated development of similar approaches for hydrological…”

Section: Methodology Transfer From the Atmosphere To The Hydrospherementioning

confidence: 99%

The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

Rossa¹,

Liechti

Zappa

et al. 2011

Atmospheric Research

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Publication informationAtmospheric Research, 100 (2-3): 150-167Publisher Elsevier This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT AbstractQuantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly nonlinear model components involved in such a system. Much effort has been and is being invested in the quest of dealing with uncertain precipitation observations and forecasts and the propagation of such uncertainties through hydrological and hydraulic models predicting river discharges and risk for inundation. The COST 731 Action is one of these and constitutes a European initiative which deals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems.COST 731 addresses three major lines of development: (1) combining meteorological and hydrological models to form a forecast chain, (2) propagating uncertainty information through this chain and make it available to end users in a suitable form, (3)

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Section: Methodology Transfer From the Atmosphere To The Hydrospherementioning

confidence: 99%

The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

Rossa¹,

Liechti

Zappa

et al. 2011

Atmospheric Research

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“…The amount and distribution of moisture in the atmosphere are among the most important factors affecting the prediction of mesoscale and storm-scale weather (e.g., McPherson et al, 1997), particularly for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF; Emanuel et al, 1995;Fritsch et al, 1998;Droegemeier et al, 2000). High-resolution measurements of moisture within the boundary layer (BL) are even more impor-tant because BL moisture is the essential fuel for convection and precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Two-dimensional variational analysis of near-surface moisture from simulated radar refractivity-related phase change observations

et al. 2013

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Because they are most sensitive to atmospheric moisture content, radar refractivity observations can provide high-resolution information about the highly variable low-level moisture field. In this study, simulated radar refractivity-related phase-change data were created using a radar simulator from realistic highresolution model simulation data for a dryline case. These data were analyzed using the 2DVAR system developed specifically for the phase-change data.Two sets of experiments with the simulated observations were performed, one assuming a uniform target spacing of 250 m and one assuming nonuniform spacing between 250 m to 4 km. Several sources of observation error were considered, and their impacts were examined. They included errors due to ground target position uncertainty, typical random errors associated with radar measurements, and gross error due to phase wrapping. Without any additional information, the 2DVAR system was incapable of dealing with phase-wrapped data directly. When there was no phase wrapping in the data, the 2DVAR produced excellent analyses, even in the presence of both position uncertainty and random radar measurement errors. When a separate pre-processing step was applied to unwrap the phase-wrapped data, quality moisture analyses were again obtained, although the analyses were smoother due to the reduced effective resolution of the observations by interpolation and smoothing involved in the unwrapping procedure. The unwrapping procedure was effective even when significant differences existed between the analyzed state and the state at a reference time. The results affirm the promise of using radar refractivity phase-change measurements for near-surface moisture analysis.

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“…Therefore, the challenge is to develop tools able to anticipate what meteorological and hydrological conditions may trigger these landslides before the precipitation event arrives. To succeed, two major sources of uncertainty have to be addressed: the uncertainty associated with the meteorological forecast and the uncertainty at the interface between meteorology and hydrology (Castelli, 1995;Droegemeier et al, 2000;Hostetler, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a definition of a real-time forecasting network for rainfall induced shallow landslides

Segoni

Leoni

Benedetti

et al. 2009

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. PREVIEW is an European Commission FP6 Integrated Project with the aim of developing, at an European level, innovative geo-information services for atmospheric, geophysical and man-made risks. Within this framework, the Landslides Platform Service 2 (forecasting of shallow rapid slope movements) has developed an integrated procedure for the forecasting and warning of distributed shallow landsliding to be used for civil protection purposes.The Service consists of an automated end-to-end forecasting chain which uses data from a probabilistic downscaled short-term rainfall forecast, soil saturation estimates and meteorological radar outputs. The above data are entered into a hydro-geological model that makes use of an infinite slope approach to calculate the distributed Factor of Safety over the entire basin. All outputs, and much of the input data, are shown on a WebGIS system so that end-users can interactively access and download data. A distinctive feature of the service is the use of an innovative soil depth model for predicting the distributed thickness of the regolith cover within the basin, which is one of the most important parameters controlling shallow landslide triggering.The service was developed in a pilot test site in NE Italy, the Armea basin. Validation makes use of two rainfall events: one that occurred in 2000 and a smaller, more recent event (2006) that caused fewer landslides. Rainfall data have been used to compute a distributed factor-of-safety map that has been overlaid onto the landslide inventory. Instead of a traditional validation approach based on the number count of correctly identified landslides, we carried out an alternative procedure based on the landslides area that gave outcomes which, for this preliminary stage of the research, can be considered promising.

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Hydrological Aspects of Weather Prediction and Flood Warnings: Report of the Ninth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program

Cited by 61 publications

References 20 publications

The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

Two-dimensional variational analysis of near-surface moisture from simulated radar refractivity-related phase change observations

Towards a definition of a real-time forecasting network for rainfall induced shallow landslides

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