Hydrological drought risk recurrence under climate change in the karst area of Northwestern Algeria

Abstract

This study aims to estimate hydrological drought risk using probabilistic analysis of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both past and future drought severity and duration in three basins located in the widest karst massif of northern Algeria. The procedures entail: (1) identification of extent of meteorological drought that could trigger corresponding hydrological drought through their characteristics; (2) assessment of future risk of extreme drought according to two emission scenarios of the representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5); and (3) estimation of drought return periods using bivariate frequency analysis and investigation of their future change rates under climate change. Hydrological droughts were computed by using the bias-corrected future climate projections from nine global climate models downscaled using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA4), and GR2M hydrological model. The analysis revealed a connection between meteorological and hydrological droughts occurrences and the response time depends on the memory effect of the considered basin. We also found strong consensus between past drought events return periods, determined by bivariate frequency analysis, and those determined by climate models under RCP8.5 scenario. Finally, in regards to drought return periods (10, 50 and 100-years), the risk of extreme drought recurrence in the future has been projected to be larger than the reference period.

Past and future drought in Northwestern Algeria: the Beni Bahdel Dam catchment

“…The climate in Northwestern Algeria was humid in 1951, semi-arid since 1973 and it is projected to be arid in 2100. Bouabdelli et al (2020) also found that hydrological drought risk determined with S. Bouabdelli et al: Past and future drought in Northwestern Algeria: the Beni Bahdel Dam catchment frequency analysis likely will rise especially under RCP8.5 with higher severities and durations.…”

“…Several studies also published drying trends in the Western Mediterranean region starting at different times, i.e. from the mid-1920's to 1950 and since the mid-1970's (Brunet et al, 2007;Zeroual et al, 2019). The vast plains of the western region of Algeria are an important agricultural production and farming zone.…”

“…The vast plains of the western region of Algeria are an important agricultural production and farming zone. However, the Northwestern Algeria is particularly vulnerable area to climate change (Achour et al, 2020;Bouabdelli et al, 2020;Meddi et al, 2010;Zeroual et al, 2017). The severity and frequency of drought events in this region have affected water resources availabil-ity and agriculture and the trends to drier conditions seem to intensify.…”

Persistent Droughts and Water Scarcity: Households’ Perceptions and Practices in Makhanda, South Africa

“…Worldwide, climate change has meant that recurrent, severe, and widespread droughts will become a common phenomenon in the future [1,2], with adverse implications on water supply [3]. In drought-prone areas, persistent droughts can intersect with other drivers of water scarcity, such as population growth, unsustainable consumption and poor management of water, and legacies of inequality and uneven social vulnerabilities, which collectively result in adverse impacts on different sectors including agriculture, energy, and health [3][4][5][6].…”

A new regionalization of rainfall patterns based on wavelet transform information and hierarchical cluster analysis in northeastern Algeria

“…Understanding climate variability, climate change and global warming is essential for understanding world's water cycle. Understanding the various components water cycle's components has been the aim of a large body of studies on rainfall, flow, temperature, evaporation, infiltration (Mengistu et al, 2021;Dang et al, 2021;Pokharel et al, 2020;Nistor et al, 2020;Li et al, 2020;Bouabdelli et al, 2020;Zerouali et al, 2020;Machiwal et al, 2019;Pathak et al, 2017;Santos et al, 2018;Gocic and Trajkovic 2014;Duncan et al, 2013;Meddi et al, 2010) to be the key elements in designing and managing civil engineering structures, particularly studies on the precipitation component (Wolski et al, 2021;Martinez-Artigas et al, 2020;Zerouali et al, 2021;Machiwal et al, 2019;Lazri and Ameur, 2018;Teodoro et al, 2015;Conway et al, 2010;Massei et al, 2011). Studies on rainfall are the most common compared to the other components; thus, the results of these works can help managers in decision-making processes in the field of water resources.…”