Hydrological drought types in cold climates: quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative survey of impacts

Loon, Anne F. Van; Ploum, Stefan; Parajka, J.; Fleig, Anne; Garnier, Emmanuel; Laaha, Gregor; Lanen, H.A.J. van

doi:10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015

Cited by 79 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Some recent low-flow studies suggest to more explicitly distinguish between the processes leading to low-flow situations (see e.g. Fleig et al, 2006;Laaha et al, 2006;Van Loon et al, 2015;Forzieri et al, 2014). Following this recommendation, we analysed the effects of model calibration and climate scenarios separately for basins with dominant winter and summer low-flow regimes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

Parajka

Blaschke

Blöschl³

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low-flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterisations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976-1986, 1987-1997, 1998-2008), which allows for disentangling the effect of the objective function-related uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria.The results indicate that the seasonality of the low-flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of Q 95 low-flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the range of simulated Q 95 in the reference period is larger in basins with a summer low-flow regime than in basins with a winter low-flow regime. The accuracy of simulated Q 95 may result in a range of up to 60 % depending on the decade used for calibration.The low-flow projections of Q 95 show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10-30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range −5 to −20 % for the climate change projected for the future period 2021-2050, relative the reference period 1978-2007. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the northern Alps and later low flows in eastern Austria. The total uncertainty of Q 95 projections is the largest in basins with a winter lowflow regime and, in some basins the range of Q 95 projections exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows, the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. The ANOVA assessment of the relative contribution of the three main variance components (i.e. climate scenario, decade used for model calibration and calibration variant representing different objective function) to the low-flow projection uncertainty shows that in basins with summer low flows climate scenarios contribute more than 75 % to the total projection uncertainty. In basins with a winter low-flow regime, the median contribution of climate scenario, decade and objective function is 29, 13 and 13 %, respectively. The implications of the uncertainties identified in this paper for water resource management are discussed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

Parajka

Blaschke

Blöschl³

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…According to Hayes et al (2011), there "appears to be a fundamental lack of knowledge or understanding about the importance of monitoring impacts, the usefulness of impact information, and the type of information that is worthwhile to collect". As a result, large-scale studies related to drought monitoring, early-warning, drought planning, and policy development often do not incorporate information on societal drought impacts; the drought indicators typically are chosen arbitrarily and not linked to specific impacts (Wilhite, 2000;Kallis, 2008;Lackstrom et al, 2013;Steinemann, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports

Stahl

Kohn

Blauhut

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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195

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Abstract. Drought is a natural hazard that can cause a wide range of impacts affecting the environment, society, and the economy. Providing an impact assessment and reducing vulnerability to these impacts for regions beyond the local scale, spanning political and sectoral boundaries, requires systematic and detailed data regarding impacts. This study presents an assessment of the diversity of drought impacts across Europe based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a unique research database that has collected close to 5000 impact reports from 33 European countries. The reported drought impacts were classified into major impact categories, each of which had a number of subtypes. The distribution of these categories and types was then analyzed over time, by country, across Europe and for particular drought events. The results show that impacts on agriculture and public water supply dominate the collection of drought impact reports for most countries and for all major drought events since the 1970s, while the number and relative fractions of reported impacts in other sectors can vary regionally and from event to event. The analysis also shows that reported impacts have increased over time as more media and website information has become available and environmental awareness has increased. Even though the distribution of impact categories is relatively consistent across Europe, the details of the reports show some differences. They confirm severe impacts in southern regions (particularly on agriculture and public water supply) and sector-specific impacts in central and northern regions (e.g., on forestry or energy production). The protocol developed thus enabled a new and more comprehensive view on drought impacts across Europe. Related studies have already developed statistical techniques to evaluate the link between drought indices and the categorized impacts using EDII data. The EDII is a living database and is a promising source for further research on drought impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks across Europe. A key result is the extensive variety of impacts found across Europe and its documentation. This insight can therefore inform drought policy planning at national to international levels.

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“…Recent drought episodes after 2000 led to increased research efforts focusing on drought climatology, causes and impacts , Škvarenina et al 2009, Brázdil et al 2013, Potop et al 2014, Bochní<ek et al 2015. In the case of Austria, drought studies have focused on alpine hydrology, drought impacts on agriculture and hydrological factors such as runoff and groundwater tables (Blaschke et al 2011, Thaler et al 2012, van Loon et al 2015 but have not assessed the trends in drought indicators. In the Czech Republic, however, drought trends be tween 1961 and 2000 or 2010 have been evaluated in several studies (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

Trnka¹,

Bálek²,

Štěpánek³

et al. 2016

Clim. Res.

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An increase in drought frequency, duration and severity is expected for the Central European region as a direct consequence of climate change. This will have profound effects on a number of key sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy production and tourism) and also affect water resources, biodiversity and the landscape as a whole. However, global circulation models significantly differ in their projections for Central Europe with respect to the magnitude and timing of these changes. Therefore, analysis of changes in drought characteristics during the last 54 yr in relation to prevailing climate trends might significantly enhance our understanding of present and future drought risks. This study is based on a set of drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer Zindex (Z-index) and the Standardized Precipitation−Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in their most advanced formulations. The time series of the drought indices were calculated for 411 climatological stations across Austria (excluding the Alps), the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Up to 45% of the evaluated stations (depending on the index) became significantly drier during the 1961−2014 period except for areas in the west and north of the studied region. In addition to identifying the regions with the most pronounced drying trends, a drying trend consistency across the station network of 3 independent national weather services was shown. The main driver behind this development was an increase in the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, driven by higher temperatures and global radiation with limited changes in precipitation totals. The observed drying trends were most pronounced during the April−September period and in lower elevations. Conversely, the majority of stations above 1000 m exhibited a significant wetting trend for both the summer and winter (October−March) half-years.

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Hydrological drought types in cold climates: quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative survey of impacts

Cited by 79 publications

References 46 publications

Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports

Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

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