Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Aguayo, Rodrigo; León‐Muñoz, Jorge; Garreaud, René; Montecinos, Aldo

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-84807-4

Cited by 28 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Half of annual precipitation is concentrated during the austral winter. Recently, Aguayo et al (2021) determined that the Puelo River Basin has a low aridity index (< 1), suggesting that it is energy-limited. The same basin showed, on average, an evaporation index close to 0 during all seasons except in summer, where evapotranspiration represents 37% of precipitation.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The WEAP model was previously calibrated and validated for a monthly time step by Aguayo et al (2021) using the corrected atmospheric products of section "Hydrology and Climate" (period 2000-2019). In this approach, the Puelo River Basin was divided into nine sub-basins (green squares in Figure 1), which were subdivided into different hydrological units according to their elevation and land cover type (baseline year 2001).…”

Section: Hydrological Model Weapmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The simulated PET near the Reloncaví Fjord was similar to the time series recorded by an evaporation pan located in the same place (2002-2012; R 2 = 0.87, RMSE = 14 mm). Further details of the calibration/validation process and the parameter estimation can be found in Text S1 and Aguayo et al (2021).…”

Section: Hydrological Model Weapmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The influence of rivers on the coastal systems in this region has weakened during the last decades (León-Muñoz et al, 2018;Aguayo et al, 2019Aguayo et al, , 2021 due to a marked decrease in precipitation during summer and autumn (Boisier et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate projections for the next decades (2020-2070) follow this trend. Recent studies have evaluated the hydrological impacts of climate projections in the region (Puelo River; 41 • S) predicting a prolongation of warm and dry conditions, seasonal changes in hydrological regimes and an increase in severe drought frequency (Aguayo et al, 2019(Aguayo et al, , 2021Pessacg et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

et al. 2021

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Freshwater inputs strongly influence oceanographic conditions in coastal systems of northwestern Patagonia (41–45°S). Nevertheless, the influence of freshwater on these systems has weakened in recent decades due to a marked decrease in precipitation. Here we evaluate potential influences of climate and land cover trends on the Puelo River (640 m3s–1), the main source of freshwater input of the Reloncaví Fjord (41.5°S). Water quality was analyzed along the Puelo River basin (six sampling points) and at the discharge site in the Reloncaví Fjord (1, 8, and 25 m depth), through six field campaigns carried out under contrasting streamflow scenarios. We also used several indicators of hydrological alteration, and cross-wavelet transform and coherence analyses to evaluate the association between the Puelo River streamflow and precipitation (1950–2019). Lastly, using the WEAP hydrological model, land cover maps (2001–2016) and burned area reconstructions (1985–2019), we simulated future land cover impacts (2030) on the hydrological processes of the Puelo River. Total Nitrogen and total phosphorus, dissolved carbon, and dissolved iron concentrations measured in the river were 3–15 times lower than those in the fjord. Multivariate analyses showed that streamflow drives the carbon composition in the river. High streamflow conditions contribute with humic and colored materials, while low streamflow conditions corresponded to higher arrival of protein-like materials from the basin. The Puelo River streamflow showed significant trends in magnitude (lower streamflow in summer and autumn), duration (minimum annual streamflow), timing (more floods in spring), and frequency (fewer prolonged floods). The land cover change (LCC) analysis indicated that more than 90% of the basin area maintained its land cover, and that the main changes were attributed to recent large wildfires. Considering these land cover trends, the hydrological simulations project a slight increase in the Puelo River streamflow mainly due to a decrease in evapotranspiration. According to previous simulations, these projections present a direction opposite to the trends forced by climate change. The combined effect of reduction in freshwater input to fiords and potential decline in water quality highlights the need for more robust data and robust analysis of the influence of climate and LCC on this river-fjord complex of northwestern Patagonia.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrological Model Weapmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrological Model Weapmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

et al. 2021

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CMIP6 precipitation and temperature projections for Chile

Salazar,

Thatcher,

Goubanova

et al. 2023

Clim Dyn

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Precipitation and near-surface temperature from an ensemble of 36 new state‐of‐the‐art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated over Chile’s climate. The analysis is focused on four distinct climatic subregions: Northern Chile, Central Chile, Northern Patagonia, and Southern Patagonia. Over each of the subregions, first, we evaluate the performance of individual global climate models (GCMs) against a suit of precipitation and temperature observation-based gridded datasets over the historical period (1986–2014) and then we analyze the models’ projections for the end of the century (2080–2099) for four different shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSP). Although the models are characterized by general wet and warm mean bias, they reproduce realistically the main spatiotemporal climatic variability over different subregions. However, none of the models is best across all subregions for both precipitation and temperature. Moreover, among the best performing models defined based on the Taylor skill score, one finds the so-called “hot models” likely exhibiting an overestimated climate sensitivity, which suggests caution in using these models for accessing future climate change in Chile. We found robust (90% of models agree in the direction of change) projected end-of-the-century reductions in mean annual precipitation for Central Chile (~ − 20 to ~ − 40%) and Northern Patagonia (~ − 10 to ~ − 30%) under scenario SSP585, but changes are strong from scenario SSP245 onwards, where precipitation is reduced by 10–20%. Northern Chile and Southern Patagonia show non-robust changes in precipitation across the models. Yet, future near-surface temperature warming presented high inter-model agreement across subregions, where the greatest increments occurred along the Andes Mountains. Northern Chile displays the strongest increment of up to ~ 6 °C in SSP585, followed by Central Chile (up to ~ 5 °C). Both Northern and Southern Patagonia show a corresponding increment by up to ~ 4 °C. We also briefly discuss about the environmental and socio-economic implications of these future changes for Chile.

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