Hydrological impacts of land use change in three diverse South African catchments

Warburton, Michele; Schulze, R. E.; Jewitt, Graham

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.028

Cited by 118 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…It is well known that the afforestation processes reduce the water availability [34,35,36] and the obtained results are consistent with other studies in the Pyrenees. [33] showed a reduction of annual discharge for the period 2021-2050 of -25% under climate conditions described in C4I model and a revegetation scenario.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

Zabalza-Martínez

Vicente‐Serrano

López‐Moreno

et al. 2017

Proceedings of First International Electronic Conference on the Hydrological Cycle

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Abstract:The water management of Boadella-Darnius reservoir (NE Spain) has been analysed for the period 1971-2013 to understand the different strategies applied in the past. Streamflow has been projected under climate conditions included in the Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia (TCCC) and under land-use change scenarios. We have simulated Darnius-Boadella reservoir inflow (2021-2050) using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESsys) with two objectives: (i) to analyse the impact of climate and land-use changes on the water resources of the basin and (ii) to analyse the different plausible strategies of water management at mid-term period . Results reveal a clear negative trend in dam inflow (-34.7%) since it was built in 1971. The simulations obtained with RHESsys show a similar trend at mid-term (2021-2050) with -31.1% under climate and land-use change conditions. Considering the ecological minimum flow outlined by Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the possible dam inflow decrease, different water management strategies are needed to mitigate the effects of the expected climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

Zabalza-Martínez

Vicente‐Serrano

López‐Moreno

et al. 2017

Proceedings of First International Electronic Conference on the Hydrological Cycle

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“…It is a multi-purpose and multi-layer model 85 (Figure 2) that can be used for catchment water resources assessment, assessment of land use change (Schulze, 2000;Schmidt et al, 2009;Warburton et al, 2012) and climate change impacts (Forbes et al, 2011;Graham et al, 2011;Kienzle et al, 2012).…”

Section: The Acru Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has also been suggested (Buytaert et al, 2010) that these challenges are more variable at the local and regional scale than at the global scale. Furthermore, since climatic 40 changes can influence land use changes (Warburton et al, 2012) and land use changes through vegetation dynamics can also feedback to impact regional climate (Wang and Eltahir, 2000;Xue, 1997), comprehensive understanding of land use change and climate change impacts on hydrology can only be gained from determination of both their combined and separate impacts.…”

Section: Introduction 30mentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario-based impacts of land use and climate changes on the hydrology of a lowland rainforest catchment in Ghana, West Africa

Aduah

Jewitt

Toucher

2017

Preprint

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“…The literature on land use change and its impacts on catchment hydrology is extensive, with studies examining the effects of (1) conversion to agricultural land use (Thanapakpawin et al, 2007;Warburton et al, 2012); (2) deforestation (Costa et al, 2003;Coe et al, 2011); (3) afforestation (e.g., Yang et al, 2012;Brown et al, 2013) and (4) urbanization (Bhaduri et al, 2001;Rose and Peters, 2001). Fewer studies have examined how traditional modeling approaches must be modified to handle nonstationary conditions, or how modeling methods can be used to assess impacts of land use change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Firstly, we investigate the efficacy of the time-varying parameter method for sparsely observed, medium-sized catchments with spatially complex and gradual land use change (occurring over months/years). Several authors have demonstrated that impacts of land use change on the hydrologic response are dependent on many factors including the type and rate of land cover conversion as well the spatial pattern of different land uses within the catchment (Dwarakish and Ganasri, 2015;Warburton et al, 2012). In such situations, the effects of unresolved spatial heterogeneities in model inputs (e.g., rainfall) and the relatively less pronounced changes in land surface conditions make time-varying parameter detection and accurate hydrologic prediction more difficult.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Pathiraja

Anghileri

Burlando

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a mediumsized catchment (2880 km 2 ) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a timevarying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

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Hydrological impacts of land use change in three diverse South African catchments

Cited by 118 publications

References 16 publications

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

Scenario-based impacts of land use and climate changes on the hydrology of a lowland rainforest catchment in Ghana, West Africa

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

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