Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Tropical River Basin: A Case Study of the Cauto River, Cuba

Montecelos-Zamora, Yalina; Cavazos, Tereza; Kretzschmar, Thomas; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Corzo, Gerald; Molina‐Navarro, Eugenio

doi:10.3390/w10091135

Cited by 21 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 62 publications

(87 reference statements)

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“…In the Caribbean region, Cuba showed that under the RCP 8.5 the availability of surface and groundwater in the near future relative to the baseline period is expected to be reduced, with the largest decreases expected during the rainy season (May to October) (Montecelos-Zamora et al, 2018). In this present study, the same pattern of the estimated reduction of water resources was noted, but the largest decrease is expected during the dry season, that is, January to May.…”

Section: Years (Total)supporting

confidence: 75%

Estimations of future reservoir volumes under different climate scenarios for a tropical reservoir in a small Caribbean Island, Trinidad

Beharry

Clarke

2023

Environ Monit Assess

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Freshwater resources supply has always presented challenges and considering a changing climate quantifying the available water in the future is important. In the Caribbean, based on projections it is likely that the island of Trinidad would receive less intense rainfall, experience more dry days, become drier and warmer, and the water resources be decreased. In this study, the impact of a changing climate on the Navet Reservoir in Trinidad was investigated and reservoir volumes were quantified for the period 2011–2099. This period was subdivided into three time periods, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099, and evaluated under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Utilizing a calibrated/validated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Navet Reservoir together with projections from five general circulation models (GCMs), future monthly and seasonal reservoir volumes were estimated. The GCM precipitation and temperature data were bias-corrected using linear scaling and variance scaling methods. It was found that reservoir volumes are likely to be the lowest during the period 2041–2070 at the Navet Reservoir. Additionally, the projected reservoir volumes are reliable, resilient, and not vulnerable. These results may be used by water managers in the adaptation and mitigation of the impacts of a changing climate, thus, building resilience in the water sector.

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Section: Years (Total)supporting

confidence: 75%

Estimations of future reservoir volumes under different climate scenarios for a tropical reservoir in a small Caribbean Island, Trinidad

Beharry

Clarke

2023

Environ Monit Assess

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“…For our study area, there was not a known set of parameters. Therefore, based on research using SWAT from Jamaica [33], Cuba [34], Brazil [35], Hawaii [36], Portugal [15] and China [32], 16 parameters related to runoff were selected for reservoir inflow (Table 1). To evaluate the significance of the relative sensitivity, the t-stat and p-value were utilized.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of the SWAT model for estimating reservoir volume in the Upper Navet watershed in Trinidad

et al. 2021

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In tropical small islands the application of hydrological modelling is challenged by the scarcity of input data. Using in-situ and statistically estimated data, a hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the Upper Navet watershed in Trinidad, a small Caribbean island. The model was built using the soil water assessment tool (SWAT). The sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation were performed in SWAT calibration and uncertainty program (SWAT-CUP) using sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2). The results revealed that for the estimated volume of water flowing into the reservoir (Flow_In) there were six sensitive parameters. To estimate the reservoir volume (Res_Vol), a modification of only the effective hydraulic conductivity was required. The model’s performance for the Flow_In validation showed acceptable values (R2 = 0.91 and NSE = 0.81). The uncertainty analysis indicated lower than recommended values for both the R-factor (0.46) and P-factor (0.31). For Res_Vol, the model’s validation performance indicated acceptable values (R2 = 0.72 and NSE = 0.70) and the P- and R-factors were 0.80 and 0.64, respectively. Based on the statistical metrics, the uncertainty for the Res_Vol was regarded as reasonable. However, care must be taken with the model’s use in the dry season, as the simulated Flow_In was generally over-predicted. A second validation of the model was performed for the reservoir under different negative (removal) and positive (addition) water amounts which confirmed the model’s ability to estimate the Res_Vol. The hydrological model established can therefore serve as a useful tool for water managers for the estimation of the Res_Vol at the Navet reservoir.

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“…Since its release in the early 1990s, SWAT has been extensively used to assess multiple aspects of water resource management in river basins, such as non-point source pollution, land cover/land use changes, soil erosion, alternative management practices and climate change ( [32] and references therein). However, examples from tropical America are limited (e.g., [33,34]). Our model selection was based on considerations such as its ability to represent the physical processes associated with water movement, support documentation and additional software for model calibration and scenario simulation.…”

Section: Hydrologic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Streamflow Response to Persistent Drought in a Coastal Tropical Mountainous Watershed, Sierra Nevada De Santa Marta, Colombia

Hoyos

Correa‐Metrio

Jepsen

et al. 2019

Water

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Droughts constitute natural hazards that affect water supply for ecosystems and human livelihoods. In 2013–2016, the Caribbean experienced the worst drought since the 1950s, and climate projections for the southern Caribbean predict less rainfall by the end of the 21st century. We assessed streamflow response to drought for a watershed in the Colombian Caribbean by analyzing the effects of drought length and land cover on streamflow recovery. We generated a calibrated SWAT model and created annual and monthly drought scenarios from rainfall records. We used our model to predict water yield for selected land covers (wet forest, shade coffee, shrub, and dry forest) under drought conditions. Annual scenarios resulted in water yield reductions of ~15 mm month−1 (wet forest, coffee, and shrub) and 5 mm month−1 (dry forest) for the first month after a two-year drought. Maximum water yield reductions for monthly scenarios occurred after a 10-month drought and were ~100 mm month−1 (wet forest, coffee, and shrub) and 20 mm month−1 (dry forest). Streamflow recovered within nine months (annual scenarios), and two to eight months (monthly scenarios) after drought termination. Drought response seems to be conditioned by climatic factors (rainfall seasonality and spatial variability) and catchment properties.

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Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Tropical River Basin: A Case Study of the Cauto River, Cuba

Cited by 21 publications

References 62 publications

Estimations of future reservoir volumes under different climate scenarios for a tropical reservoir in a small Caribbean Island, Trinidad

Estimations of future reservoir volumes under different climate scenarios for a tropical reservoir in a small Caribbean Island, Trinidad

Use of the SWAT model for estimating reservoir volume in the Upper Navet watershed in Trinidad

Modeling Streamflow Response to Persistent Drought in a Coastal Tropical Mountainous Watershed, Sierra Nevada De Santa Marta, Colombia

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