Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

Zhang, Ling; Zhang, Nan; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

doi:10.1007/s00267-015-0620-z

Cited by 54 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…However, revegetation would induce a much smaller change in the total runoff (Zheng, Sun, & Yan, ). In addition, the presence of strong compensating effects of different land‐use types within the hydrological system (Li et al, ) can cause high resistance for runoff generation to land‐use changes, particularly for large scale basins and yearly simulations (Lin et al, ; Zhang, Nan, Yu, & Ge, ). This characteristic could also be another reason for why the runoff reduction was lower in the studied basin.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of land‐use change effects on runoff and soil erosion of a hilly basin — the Yanhe River in the Chinese Loess Plateau

Yang

2018

Land Degrad Dev

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Starting in 1999, the Grain‐for‐Green Programme has been implemented in the Loess Plateau to alleviate the severe soil erosion by converting steeply sloping croplands to forestlands or grasslands. To quantify the effects of these conservation efforts, this study identified the land‐use changes between 2000 and 2015 and quantified their impacts on runoff and erosion using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) and a typical hilly basin, the Yanhe River basin as a case‐study. To heighten the applicability of SWAT to the region, major model parameters were localized and calibrated for the period of 1975–1980 and were then validated for 1981–1987. The R2 and NS validation indices were 0.70 and 0.65 for the monthly runoff and 0.67 and 0.61 for the sediment load, indicating that the model performance was acceptable. Between 2000 and 2015, the slope croplands were reduced by 39.9%, the forestlands increased by 90.2%, and the grasslands increased by 12.9%. These land‐use changes were simulated using SWAT to reduce the basin runoff by 13.8% and the sediment load by 50.7%. Spatial analyses using ArcGIS indicated that the simulated reduction in water yield due to cropland conversion to forestland was more obvious than that due to the conversion to grassland, but the reductions in the sediment yields were similar. The results suggest that the Grain‐for‐Green practice during this period was effective for preventing soil and water losses.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of land‐use change effects on runoff and soil erosion of a hilly basin — the Yanhe River in the Chinese Loess Plateau

Yang

2018

Land Degrad Dev

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“…H. Liu et al, 2015;W. Liu et al, 2015) and scenarios that reflect hypothetical shifts between various percentages of urban, forest, agricultural and other land use (Zhang et al, 2015(Zhang et al, , 2016Wu et al, 2015). Similar types of combined SWAT climate change/land use change studies have been performed in other regions including Asia (Sayasane et al, 2015;Singkran et al, 2015;Tan et al, 2015), Europe (Serpa et al, 2015;Mehdi et al, 2015b;Guse et al, 2015) and North America (Mehdi et al, 2015a;Neupane and Kumar, 2015;Goldstein and Tarhule, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Dagnew

Gassman

Schoof

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) ecohydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a wellcalibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO 2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-tolate century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid-and late 21st century.

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“…It is one of the most widely-used distributed hydrological models, and many previous studies have proved its capability for investigating impacts of climate and LUC changes on runoff [49][50][51][52]. In the SWAT model, a watershed is delineated into sub-watersheds linked with each other by a stream network.…”

Section: Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff Responses to Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes under Future Scenarios

Pan

Liu

Wang

et al. 2017

Water

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Climate and land use/cover (LUC) are the two most significant factors that directly affect the runoff process. However, most research on runoff response has focused mainly on projected climate variation, while future LUC variability has been neglected. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the impacts of projected climate and LUC changes on runoff. -2020, 2021-2030, 2031-2040 and 2041-2050 period, abbreviated S3). These three scenarios are then input into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess runoff responses. Beijiang River Basin, located in southern China, is used in this case study. The results obtained from S1, S2 and S3 show that runoff change in this basin is mainly caused by climate change; warmer temperatures and greater precipitation increase runoff. LUC change has little influence on runoff at the whole-basin scale, but changes in runoff components are more notable in the urban area than in the natural region at the sub-watershed level. The impact of LUC change in urbanized region on runoff components differ obviously among the wet, normal and dry years, and surface runoff and groundwater are found to be more sensitive to urbanization. Runoff depth is predicted to increase in this basin under the impacts of both climate and LUC changes in the future. Climate change brings greater increase in water yield and surface runoff, whereas LUC change leads to changes in allocation between surface runoff and groundwater in the urban region.

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Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

Cited by 54 publications

References 53 publications

Evaluation of land‐use change effects on runoff and soil erosion of a hilly basin — the Yanhe River in the Chinese Loess Plateau

Evaluation of land‐use change effects on runoff and soil erosion of a hilly basin — the Yanhe River in the Chinese Loess Plateau

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Runoff Responses to Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes under Future Scenarios

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