Hydrological risk analysis of dam overtopping using bivariate statistical approach: a case study from Geheyan Reservoir, China

Liu, Zhangjun; Xu, Ximeng; Cheng, Jingqing; Wen, Tianfu; Niu, Jiao

doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1550-0

Cited by 18 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…According to the simulated daily streamflow data set from the MME‐Delta, we calculated the Q (annual maximum streamflow) and W (annual maximum 7‐day W) values. The W is widely regarded as a primary indicator of flooding (Yin, Guo, He, et al., 2018; Yin, Guo, Liu, et al., 2018), and it has been extensively employed in the risk assessment of natural disasters across China (T. Li et al., 2016; Liu et al., 2018; Yin et al., 2020). Consequently, this study focused solely on the W influenced by climate change to space saving.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ubiquitous Increases in Streamflow and Flooding Magnitude Across the Yellow River Basin

Ma,

Sun,

et al. 2024

Earth and Space Science

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Global human‐induced warming has intensified water circulation in the atmospheric environment and altered the streamflow generation regime. The VIC hydrological model approach for impact assessment of climate change and human activities mainly focuses on variations in streamflow, but ignores other critical flooding characteristics induced by extreme streamflow, especially bivariate flooding characteristics. In this work, the copula functions are employed to structure the flooding risk under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) across the Yellow River basin (YRB). This is based on the multi‐model ensemble (MME) and Delta downscaling outputs (Delta‐MME) of the CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs), as well as the flooding characteristics simulated by VIC hydrological model. Compared to the reference period (1995–2014), Delta‐MME reveals a significant warming and humidifying trend under three SSPs over the YRB. Despite uncertainties originating from climate variables and hydrological model, multiple findings underscore the substantial influence of climate change on the flooding generation regime in YRB. This includes: (a) an increase in the streamflow under all SSPs; (b) a larger flooding peak (Q) and volume (W) under SSP585, with Q and W at the Huayuankou hydrologic station (HYK) increasing by 52.7% and 44.8%, respectively; (c) an advancement in the bivariate flooding risk, particularly in SSP585 where flooding co‐occurrence return period at HYK may be more than 50 times earlier. This study underscores that the urgent need to enhance social resilience to climate change in the YRB.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ubiquitous Increases in Streamflow and Flooding Magnitude Across the Yellow River Basin

Ma,

Sun,

et al. 2024

Earth and Space Science

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“…In order to prevent overtop at the dam crest, a study is conducted for the hydrological evaluation to determine if the dam has the spillway capacity to safely manage the PMF. This typical method for calculating the hydrological risk of dam overtopping is based on a univariate analysis that only takes into account flood peak discharges from the most PMF [ 5 , 10 , 11 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Analysis of Batu Dam, Malaysia in the Urban Area: Flood and Failure Analysis Preparing for Climate Change

Omar

Ariffin

Sidek

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Extensive hydrological analysis is carried out to estimate floods for the Batu Dam, a hydropower dam located in the urban area upstream of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The study demonstrates the operational state and reliability of the dam structure based on hydrologic assessment of the dam. The surrounding area is affected by heavy rainfall and climate change every year, which increases the probability of flooding and threatens a dense population downstream of the dam. This study evaluates the adequacy of dam spillways by considering the latest Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) values of the concerned dams. In this study, the PMP estimations are applied using comparison of both statistical method by Hershfield and National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM) Envelope Curve as input for PMF establishments. Since the PMF is derived from the PMP values, the highest design flood standard can be applied to any dam, ensuring inflow into the reservoirs and limiting the risk of dam structural failure. Hydrologic modeling using HEC-HMS provides PMF values for the Batu dam. Based on the results, Batu Dam is found to have 200.6 m3/s spillway discharge capacities. Under PMF conditions, the Batu dam will not face overtopping since the peak outflow of the reservoir level is still below the crest level of the dam.

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“…Sklar [24] first proposed the Copula function in 1959, which points out that any multivariate joint distribution function can be decomposed into corresponding marginal distributions and a Copula function, which determines the correlation between variables, including the correlation coefficient size and related structure types. At present, the Copula function is used widely to model multivariable financial time series, [25][26][27] the internal law of flood change under the action of multiple factors, [28][29][30] climate change prediction based on the Copula function, [31][32][33] among others. However, based on the Copula function's superior joint ability, the life prediction of concrete durability under multiple factors has not been studied.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Durability of organic coated reinforced magnesium oxychloride cement concrete

Wang

Chen

et al. 2020

Structural Concrete

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Zinc-rich coating as a sacrificial anode provides cathodic protection for steel bars, so it can provide protection only for the steel bars for a certain period of time, and fundamentally cannot solve the problem of steel bar corrosion in magnesium oxychloride cement concrete (MOCC). However, the organic coating protects the steel by its own shielding. Therefore, organic coated reinforced MOCC (ORMOCC) is more adaptable in western saline soil and salt lake areas.ORMOCC's durability degradation process includes four aspects, but its durability degradation model under those four factors has not been studied. Therefore, combined with the environment of western salt lakes and saline soil, the solution immersion test was performed on ORMOCC, and the durability degradation of steel bars was studied with electrochemical tests. The degradation durability of organic coatings was studied by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Crack formation and the mass loss of MOCC were studied by ultrasonic and quality tests, taking the four corresponding parameters as degradation indicators. Based on the four-dimensional Copula function, the degradation model of ORMOCC under four degradation factors was established. The results showed that the four-dimensional Copula function can describe the durability degradation process of ORMOCC under the influence of the four factors well, and it reaches the damage state at approximately 12,450 days.

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Hydrological risk analysis of dam overtopping using bivariate statistical approach: a case study from Geheyan Reservoir, China

Cited by 18 publications

References 39 publications

Ubiquitous Increases in Streamflow and Flooding Magnitude Across the Yellow River Basin

Ubiquitous Increases in Streamflow and Flooding Magnitude Across the Yellow River Basin

Hydrological Analysis of Batu Dam, Malaysia in the Urban Area: Flood and Failure Analysis Preparing for Climate Change

Durability of organic coated reinforced magnesium oxychloride cement concrete

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