Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM

Vezzoli, Renata; Mercogliano, Paola; Pecora, Silvano; Zollo, Alessandra Lucia; Cacciamani, C.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.096

Cited by 64 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Future climate variables coupled with hydrological models are used worldwide to assess the climate change impacts on water resources at river basin scale (e.g., Burlando & Rosso, ; Chen, Brissette, Liu, & Xia, ; Sato, Kojiri, Michihiro, Suzuki, & Nakakita, ; Teutschbein & Seibert, ; Vezzoli, Mercogliano, Pecora, Zollo, & Cacciamani, ; Yu & Wang, ). In almost all these studies, the uncertainty in the climate input and, hence, in the results arises, recommending the use of several climate projections (combination of GCMs, RCMs, and forcing scenarios) to obtain a range of likely future conditions (Hunt, Walker, Westenbroek, Hay, & Markstrom, ; Teutschbein & Seibert, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy, using high‐resolution regional projections

D’Oria

Ferraresi

Tanda

2019

Hydrological Processes

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This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy. A continuous hydrological model for each of the seven river basins within the study area was calibrated using historical data. The models were then driven by downscaled and bias‐corrected climate projections of an ensemble of 13 regional climate models (RCMs), under two different scenarios of representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The impacts were examined at medium term (2031–2040) and long term (2051–2060) in comparison with a reference period (2003–2012); the changes in rainfall, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were investigated. A high degree of uncertainty characterized the results with a significant intermodel variability, the period being equal. For the sake of brevity, only the results for the Serchio River basin were presented in detail. According to the RCM ensemble mean and the RCP4.5, a moderate decrease in rainfall, with reference to 2003–2012, is expected at medium term (−0.6%) and long term (−2.8%). Due to the warming of the study area, the reduction in the streamflow volume is two times the precipitation decrease (−1.1% and −6.8% at medium and long term, respectively). The groundwater recharge is mainly affected by the changes in climate with expected percolation volume variations of −3.3% at 2031–2040 and −8.1% at 2051–2060. The impacts on the Serchio River basin water resources are less significant under the RCP8.5 scenario. The presence of artificial structures, such as dam‐reservoir systems, can contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change on water resources through the implementation of appropriate regulation strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy, using high‐resolution regional projections

D’Oria

Ferraresi

Tanda

2019

Hydrological Processes

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“…Cascade hydropower stations are effective to enhance water resource utilization, optimize regional water allocation, and mitigate flood risk through comprehensive scheduling. However, the changing climate has shown significant impacts on flood frequency in the Jinsha River [2], which challenges the scheduling of the cascade hydropower stations [3,4]. In the past, a variety of studies have been carried out on the optimal scheduling of cascade hydropower stations [5][6][7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation of Cascade Hydropower Station Scheduling on A Headwater Stream of the Yangtze River under Changing Climate Conditions

Zhai

Lin

Guo

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:Cascade hydropower stations are effective in water resource utilization, regional water allocation, and flood risk management. Under changing climate conditions, water resources would experience complex temporal and spatial changes, which may lead to various issues relating to flood control and water resource management, and challenge the existing optimal scheduling of cascade hydropower stations. It is thus important to conduct a study on cascade hydropower station scheduling under changing climate conditions. In this study, the Jinsha River rainfall-discharge statistical model is developed based on the statistical relationship between meteorological and runoff indicators. Validation results indicate that the developed model is capable of generating satisfactory simulation results and thus can be used for future Jinsha River runoff projection under climate change. Meanwhile, the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) is run to project future rainfall in the Jinsha River basin under two General Circulation Models (ECHAM5 and HadAM3P), two scenarios (A1B and B2), and four periods (1961-1990, 1991-2020, 2021-2050, and 2051-2099). The regional climate modeling data are analyzed and then fed into the Jinsha hydrological model to analyze the trends of future discharge at Xiangjiaba Hydro Station. Adaptive scheduling strategies for cascade hydropower stations are discussed based on the future inflow trend analysis and current flood scheduling mode. It is suggested that cascade hydropower stations could be operated at flood limited water level (FLWL) during 2021-2099. In addition, the impoundment of cascade hydropower stations should be properly delayed during the post-flood season in response to the possible occurrence of increased and extended inflow in wet seasons.

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“…Future work will focus in assessing how the proposed measures will perform under a changing climate. Indeed, expected climate change in the Mediterranean will include a decrease of precipitation during spring and summer and increase in fall and winter, while temperatures will increase throughout the year [67]. Crop management will be affected: an increase of irrigation is expected, while the increase of precipitation during fall and winter might yield large nitrate leaching.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Nitrate Reduction Strategies from Diffuse Sources in the Po River Basin

Malagó

Bouraoui

Pastori

et al. 2019

Water

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Water contamination caused by the presence of excessive amounts of nitrate can be catastrophic for aquatic ecosystems and human health. Due to these high risks, a great deal of emphasis has been placed on finding effective measures to reduce nitrate concentrations in rivers and aquifers. In this study, we used the SWAT model based on grid-cells of 5 minutes of resolution for assessing the processes involved in nitrate loads generation and transport into aquifers and rivers and for providing basin management strategies of nitrate reduction. We applied the model in the Po River Basin (Italy), one of the most densely populated and highly agriculturally exploited area in the Mediterranean basin. The model was successfully calibrated and validated in eight monitoring stations along the Po River for the period 2000–2012. Simulated monthly streamflow and nitrate concentrations were in good agreement with observations, obtaining values of bias around ±25% in both calibration and validation. Among the tested scenarios of nitrogen reduction from agricultural sources, red clover cover crop after corn, coupled with a targeted reduction of mineral fertilizers and the limitation of nitrogen manure leads to a reduction of nitrate leaching and nitrogen emissions of around 37%.

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Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM

Cited by 64 publications

References 50 publications

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy, using high‐resolution regional projections

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy, using high‐resolution regional projections

Adaptation of Cascade Hydropower Station Scheduling on A Headwater Stream of the Yangtze River under Changing Climate Conditions

Modelling Nitrate Reduction Strategies from Diffuse Sources in the Po River Basin

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