Hydrology of malaria: Model development and application to a Sahelian village

Bomblies, Arne; Duchemin, Jean‐Bernard; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

doi:10.1029/2008wr006917

Cited by 113 publications

(200 citation statements)

References 62 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

197

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…They are also involved in economic activities (agriculture, in our case) that demand higher mobility, which together with the higher population density elevate the risk of infection. Higher population numbers in a given area may also alter the agricultural landscape in ways that create additional recruitment sites for the vector [37]. Areas of higher density might also coincide with those of higher immigration from lower, more endemic regions, which would import asymptomatic cases that contribute to persistent transmission.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A better understanding of malaria persistence in highly seasonal environments such as highlands and desert fringes requires identifying the factors behind the spatial reservoir of the pathogen in the low season. In these 'unstable' malaria regions, such reservoirs play a critical role by allowing persistence during the low transmission season and therefore, between seasonal outbreaks. In the highlands of East Africa, the most populated epidemic regions in Africa, temperature is expected to be intimately connected to where in space the disease is able to persist because of pronounced altitudinal gradients. Here, we explore other environmental and demographic factors that may contribute to malaria's highland reservoir. We use an extensive spatio-temporal dataset of confirmed monthly Plasmodium falciparum cases from 1995 to 2005 that finely resolves space in an Ethiopian highland. With a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and a generalized linear mixed model that includes a spatially structured random effect, we demonstrate that population density is important to disease persistence during the low transmission season. This population effect is not accounted for in typical models for the transmission dynamics of the disease, but is consistent in part with a more complex functional form of the force of infection proposed by theory for vector-borne infections, only during the low season as we discuss. As malaria risk usually decreases in more urban environments with increased human densities, the opposite counterintuitive finding identifies novel control targets during the low transmission season in African highlands.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In an effort to predict the number of malaria cases, several statistical models have also considered vegetation density (which depends on soil water availability) and distances between water bodies and human populations (Gomez-Elipe et al, 2007;Kleinschmidt et al, 2001). Finally, detailed models linking hydrology with entomology have recently been proposed and tested for a semi-arid region (Bomblies et al, 2008;Yamana et al, 2011). The role of hydrologic processes in the dynamics of other vector-borne infectious diseases is also starting to become more fully recognized (Bertuzzo et al, 2008).…”

Section: E Montosi Et Al: Ecohydrology and Malaria Outbreaksmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ecohydrological model of malaria outbreaks

Montosi

Manzoni

Porporato

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Malaria is a geographically widespread infectious disease that is well known to be affected by climate variability at both seasonal and interannual timescales. In an effort to identify climatic factors that impact malaria dynamics, there has been considerable research focused on the development of appropriate disease models for malaria transmission driven by climatic time series. These analyses have focused largely on variation in temperature and rainfall as direct climatic drivers of malaria dynamics. Here, we further these efforts by considering additionally the role that soil water content may play in driving malaria incidence. Specifically, we hypothesize that hydro-climatic variability should be an important factor in controlling the availability of mosquito habitats, thereby governing mosquito growth rates. To test this hypothesis, we reduce a nonlinear ecohydrological model to a simple linear model through a series of consecutive assumptions and apply this model to malaria incidence data from three South African provinces. Despite the assumptions made in the reduction of the model, we show that soil water content can account for a significant portion of malaria's case variability beyond its seasonal patterns, whereas neither temperature nor rainfall alone can do so. Future work should therefore consider soil water content as a simple and computable variable for incorporation into climate-driven disease models of malaria and other vector-borne infectious diseases.

show abstract

“…The relation between soil surface wetting and drying and seasonal outbreaks of mosquito populations and mosquito-borne diseases has been studied in the U.S. [99] [102] [103] and in Africa [104]. [105] develop a coupled hydrological and entomological model for Africa which simulates breeding pool formations and vector persistence.…”

Section: Predictions Of Water-related Disease Outbreaksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Infectious Disease Research—What Role Is There for Hydrologists?

Heinrich¹,

Bach²

2017

JWARP

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Numerous virulent and widespread diseases are related to water. The transmission and outbreak of water-related diseases are closely coupled to their hydrological environment. Changes in this environment and the associated hydrological processes may affect the occurrence and virulence of waterrelated diseases. Environmental changes can be manifold, including e.g. climate and land use, agricultural management or urbanization. Water fluxes and storages play a dominant role in describing disease outbreak, transmission and transport. New land cover types often alter landscape scale water storages. If the effects of changes could be better understood, predictions about the distribution, emergence or outbreak of water-related diseases would be possible. Furthermore, the collaboration of experts from different disciplines is essential for accurate spatial and temporal prediction of water-related disease outbreaks. Here we review the current state of knowledge of waterrelated diseases and present a general classification of these diseases, followed by a discussion of their major drivers. This review focuses particularly on hydrologists and how they can contribute with their understanding of hydrological processes.

show abstract

Hydrology of malaria: Model development and application to a Sahelian village

Cited by 113 publications

References 62 publications

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria

An ecohydrological model of malaria outbreaks

Infectious Disease Research—What Role Is There for Hydrologists?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About