Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecast of a Highly Localized Convective Event in the Mediterranean

Furnari, Luca; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Senatore, Alfonso

doi:10.3390/w12061545

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Concerning the initialization data that are associated with the initial and boundary conditions (IBCs), they are critical to the WRF model's performance, as even a 6-h difference in the IBCs' lead time can result in significant differences in the simulated meteorological fields, including those of rainfall [29]. In the direction of considering the uncertainties in atmospheric IBCs, ensemble forecasting approaches can be beneficial [30], leading to probabilistic streamflow forecasts that can assist in quantifying the likelihood of impactbased thresholds' exceedance [31]. However, it should be noted that IBCs' ensemble forecasting introduces increased demands for computing resources and thus, it may not be feasible under an operational context.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pre-Operational Application of a WRF-Hydro-Based Fluvial Flood Forecasting System in the Southeast Mediterranean

et al. 2021

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The Southeast Mediterranean (SEM) is characterized by increased vulnerability to river/stream flooding. However, impact-oriented, operational fluvial flood forecasting is far away from maturity in the region. The current paper presents the first attempt at introducing an operational impact-based warning system in the area, which is founded on the coupling of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model with an advanced spatially-explicit hydrological model. The system’s modeling methodology and forecasting scheme are presented, as well as prototype results, which were derived under a pre-operational mode. Future developments and challenges needed to be addressed in terms of validating the system and increasing its efficiency are also discussed. This communication highlights that standard approaches used in operational weather forecasting in the SEM for providing flood-related information and alerts can, and should, be replaced by advanced coupled hydrometeorological systems, which can be implemented without a significant cost on the operational character of the provided services. This is of great importance in establishing effective early warning services for fluvial flooding in the region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pre-Operational Application of a WRF-Hydro-Based Fluvial Flood Forecasting System in the Southeast Mediterranean

et al. 2021

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“…The hydrological component of CHAOS is based on the WRF‐Hydro version 5.1.1 model (Gochis et al, 2020), because it is a fully‐distributed, multi‐physics, and multi‐scale hydrological model (Yucel, Onen, Yilmaz, & Gochis, 2015), with advanced capabilities for flood forecasting (Abbaszadeh, Gavahi, & Moradkhani, 2020; Avolio et al, 2019; Camera, Bruggeman, Zittis, Sofokleous, & Arnault, 2020; Furnari, Mendicino, & Senatore, 2020; Hunt & Menon, 2020; Lin et al, 2018; Ryu et al, 2017; Sun et al, 2020), and the ability to holistically represent atmosphere‐hydro‐land processes (Givati, Gochis, Rummler, & Kunstmann, 2016; Senatore et al, 2015). The hydrological component was set up on the innermost domain (D04: 250 m × 250 m) of the meteorological component covering the flooded region (Figure 3b).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additional, two more parameters were included in the calibration procedure as suggested by Yucel et al (2015) and Senatore et al (2015) and Senatore, Furnari et al (2020); the overland flow roughness scaling factor and the initial retention height scaling factor. After the calibration tests, the two parameters were set to 1, with the values of 0.5 and 0.2 for the initial retention height scaling factor and 0.8 and 1.3 for overland flow roughness scaling factor also providing satisfactory results.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating sea‐state effects on flash flood hydrograph and inundation forecasting

Papaioannou

Varlas

Λουκάς

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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A common source of uncertainty in flood inundation forecasting is the hydrograph used.Given the role of sea-air-hydro-land chain processes on the water cycle, flood hydrographs in coastal areas can be indirectly affected by sea state. This study investigates sea-state effects on precipitation, discharge, and flood inundation forecasting implementing atmospheric, ocean wave, hydrological, and hydraulic-hydrodynamic coupled models. The Chemical Hydrological Atmospheric Ocean wave System (CHAOS) was used for coupled hydro-meteorological-wave simulations 'accounting' or 'not accounting' the impact of sea state on precipitation and, subsequently, on flood hydrograph. CHAOS includes the WRF-Hydro hydrological model and the WRF-ARW meteorological model two-way coupled with the WAM wave model through the OASIS3-MCT coupler. Subsequently, the 2D HEC-RAS hydraulic-hydrodynamic model was forced by the flood hydrographs and map the inundated areas. A flash flood event occurred on 15 November 2017 in Mandra, Attica, Greece, causing 24 fatalities, and damages was selected as case study. The calibration of models was performed exploiting historical flood records and previous studies. Human interventions such as hydraulic works and the urban areas were included in the hydraulic modelling geometry domain.The representation of the resistance caused by buildings was based on Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) data while the local elevation rise method was used in the urban-flood simulation. The flood extent results were assessed using the Critical Success Index (CSI), and CSI penalize. Integrating sea-state affected the forecast of precipitation and discharge peaks, causing up to +24% and from −8% to +36% differences, respectively, improving inundation forecast by 4.5% and flooding additional approximately 70 building blocks. The precipitation forcing time step was also highlighted as significant factor in such a small-scale flash flood. The integrated multidisciplinary methodological approach could be adopted in operational forecasting for civil protection applications facilitating the protection of socio-economic activities and human lives during similar future events.

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“…Papagiannaki et al (2013) and Diakakis (2012) provided evidence that Attica is the most affected area in Greece concerning weather-related hazards and particularly flash floods. Flash-flood events in Attica have been studied from the meteorological point of view (Lagouvardos et al, 1996; among others), the climatological aspect (Galanaki et al, 2016(Galanaki et al, , 2018, flood risk (Lasda et al, 2010;Kandilioti and Makropoulos, 2012), and vulnerability (Papagiannaki et al, , 2017. , in particular, found that impacts of floods increase significantly when 24 h accumulated rainfall exceeds 60 mm.…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece, for operational flood forecasting

Galanaki

Lagouvardos

Kotroni

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An integrated modeling approach for forecasting flood events is presented in the current study. An advanced flood forecasting model, which is based on the coupling of hydrological and atmospheric components, was used for a twofold objective: first to investigate the potential of a coupled hydrometeorological model to be used for flood forecasting at two medium-size drainage basins in the area of Attica (Greece) and second to investigate the influence of the use of the coupled hydrometeorological model on the precipitation forecast skill. For this reason, we used precipitation and hydrometric in situ data for six flood events at two selected drainage regions of Attica. The simulations were carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (WRF-only) and the WRF-Hydro system in a fully coupled mode, under which surface, subsurface, and channel hydrological processes were parameterized at a fine-resolution grid of 95 m approximately. Results showed that the coupled WRF-Hydro system was capable of producing the observed discharge during the flood episodes, after the adequate calibration method applied at the studied basins. This outcome provides confidence that the model configuration under the two-way atmospheric–hydrological coupling is robust and, thus, can be used for operational flood forecasting purposes in the area of Attica. In addition, the WRF-Hydro model showed a tendency to slightly improve the simulated precipitation in comparison to the precipitation produced by the atmospheric-only version of the model (WRF), demonstrating the capability of the coupled WRF-Hydro model to enhance the precipitation forecast skill for operational flood predictions.

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Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecast of a Highly Localized Convective Event in the Mediterranean

Cited by 18 publications

References 60 publications

Pre-Operational Application of a WRF-Hydro-Based Fluvial Flood Forecasting System in the Southeast Mediterranean

Pre-Operational Application of a WRF-Hydro-Based Fluvial Flood Forecasting System in the Southeast Mediterranean

Investigating sea‐state effects on flash flood hydrograph and inundation forecasting

Implementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece, for operational flood forecasting

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