Hydropower Future: Between Climate Change, Renewable Deployment, Carbon and Fuel Prices

Abstract

Hydropower represents an interesting technology: affordable, renewable, and flexible. However, it must cope with climate changes and new energy policies that jeopardize its future. A smooth transition to sustainability requires decision makers to assess the future perspectives of hydropower: about its future revenue and related uncertainty. This investigation requires a multidisciplinary approach as both streamflow and energy mix will evolve. We simulated future streamflow based on eight climate scenarios using a semi-distributed hydrological model for our case study, the Tremorgio hydropower plant located in southern Switzerland. Next, using a hydropower management model we generated income according to these streamflows and twenty-eight electricity price scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change will modify the seasonality of inflows and volumes exploitable for hydropower generation. However, adaptive strategies in the management of reservoirs could minimize revenue losses/maximize revenue gains. In addition, most market scenarios project an increase in revenues, except in the case of high wind and solar energy penetration. Markets do not provide the right incentive, since the deployment of intermittent energy would benefit from more flexible hydropower.

System Dynamics Approach for Assessing the Behaviour of the Lim Reservoir System (Serbia) under Changing Climate Conditions

“…Since the seasonality adds an important variation in the hydropower generation, the traditional approach based on the flow duration curve is not capable of capturing the changes in the seasonal power generation [20]. Higher temperature over the year will modify the seasonality of the inflows available for the hydropower generation [38]. The natural climate variation is also an important factor which affects the variation in seasonal flows [39].…”

Water-Energy Nexus for an Italian Storage Hydropower Plant under Multiple Drivers

“…With the anticipated changes in climate due to global warming, substantial changes are expected for streamflow of snow and/or glacier dominated hydropower catchment [7,58]. With the retreat of glaciers a temporary increase in streamflow is expected for the near future and is completely dependent on the characteristic of the catchment and rate of climate change; with a possibility of change in the regime of hydropower catchment from glacier to snow or snow to rainfall based [18,59]. For mountain catchments, particularly in the Alpine region these shifts in hydrological regime is due to the early onset of melting season and shrinkage of glaciers, resulting in higher streamflow in early summer and spring [18,20,[60][61][62].…”

“…We used a semi-distributed hydrological model following Bongio et al [25], Patro et al [18], and Ranzani et al [59]. The basin was subdivided into independent sub-domain elevation bands with homogeneous geomorphological characteristics.…”

Renewable Energy in Wilderness Landscapes: Visitors’ Perspectives

“…The results further show that the proposed Hverfisfljót hydropower plant would reduce the attractiveness of the area to its visitors, degrade their wilderness experience, and therefore strongly reduce their interest in visiting the area. Moreover, the participants perceived the already developed lowlands of the country as more suitable for renewable energy development than the undeveloped highland areas, which is in line with the principles of smart practices for renewable energy development.Sustainability 2019, 11, 5812 2 of 23 the renewable energy mix due to its ability to quickly change the amount of electricity supplied and complement intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy [5][6][7]. According to the International Hydropower Association (IHA) [8], the global median greenhouse gas emission intensity of hydropower reservoirs is around 18.5 gCO 2 −eq/kWh, which is significantly lower than that of coal (820 gCO 2 −eq/kWh) or gas (490 gCO 2 −eq/kWh) [9].…”

“…Sustainability 2019, 11, 5812 2 of 23 the renewable energy mix due to its ability to quickly change the amount of electricity supplied and complement intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy [5][6][7]. According to the International Hydropower Association (IHA) [8], the global median greenhouse gas emission intensity of hydropower reservoirs is around 18.5 gCO 2 −eq/kWh, which is significantly lower than that of coal (820 gCO 2 −eq/kWh) or gas (490 gCO 2 −eq/kWh) [9].…”