Hype cycles during socio-technical transitions: The dynamics of collective expectations about renewable energy in Germany

Kriechbaum, M.; Posch, Alfred; Hauswiesner, Angelika

doi:10.1016/j.respol.2021.104262

Cited by 37 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…4). Prior work has usually explained this dynamical feature by including exogenous effects: environmental degradation (Butzer, 2012), changes in carrying capacities, mismanagement of expectations (Hirshleifer and Plotkin, 2021) or hype (Kriechbaum et al, 2021). Here, we connect the decline in cultural productivity with the dilution of expertise, which highlights how the supply of experts affects growth and innovation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…2b. Secondly, the overall population of creators grows and shrinks according to the expectation of success (Hirshleifer and Plotkin, 2021;MacKenzie, 1993;Van Lente and Rip, 1998;Kriechbaum et al, 2021), which is determined by the capacity of the system to produce novel cultural artifacts (i.e., containing new components). The probability p(t) that at least one novel component has been found corresponds to the dynamics of success in an ideal uniform search (Doncieux et al, 2019):…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dilution of expertise in the rise and fall of collective innovation

Duran-Nebreda

O’Brien

Bentley

et al. 2022

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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Diversity drives both biological and artificial evolution. A prevalent assumption in cultural evolution is that the generation of novel features is an inherent property of a subset of the population (e.g., experts). In contrast, diversity—the fraction of objects in the corpus that are unique—exhibits complex collective dynamics such as oscillations that cannot be simply reduced to individual attributes. Here, we explore how a popular cultural domain can rapidly expand to the point where it exceeds the supply of subject-specific experts and the balance favours imitation over invention. At this point, we expect diversity to decrease and information redundancy to increase as ideas are increasingly copied rather than invented. We test our model predictions on three case studies: early personal computers and home consoles, social media posts, and cryptocurrencies. Each example exhibits a relatively abrupt departure from standard diffusion models during the exponential increase in the number of imitators. We attribute this transition to the “dilution of expertise.” Our model recreates observed patterns of diversity, complexity and artifact trait distributions, as well as the collective boom-and-bust dynamics of innovation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dilution of expertise in the rise and fall of collective innovation

Duran-Nebreda

O’Brien

Bentley

et al. 2022

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This cycle is used by Gartner, amongst others, to specify for their clients 'the right time' for investments in novelties. Scholars in the sociology of expectations field have a far more subtle view on the role of expectations in socio-technical transitions (e.g., see Kriechbaum et al, 2021) compared to Gartner. They see indeed an important role for expectations in the formation and function of socio-technical niches (see theory 4 above).…”

Section: Figure 63mentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovations in Transport

2022

Introduction to Innovations in Transport

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of 'neoliberal' power structures). By contrast, transitions theory is strongly informed by the knowledge on innovation dynamics as gathered in Science & Technology Studies, sociology, institutional theory, reflexive governance, and innovation studies. As became especially clear in the discussion of the underlying governance philosophy (section 3), all of the transitions-theoretical innovation frameworks are frontally addressing the basic characteristic of innovation -uncertainty. Transitions literature, following van de Ven et al. (2000), commonly speaks of (sustainable) innovation journeys. It is along this same sensitivity to innovation dynamics and uncertainty that transitions theory seems well equipped to deal with the ambiguous transport innovation challenges of 'exnovation' and 'responsible stagnation' (section 5).

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“…This has led to multiple new insights on sustainability transition that were not possible without this ontological shift. First, using discourse analysis has led to a more politically sensitive understanding of transition processes: seen for example by the analyses of actors' visions, narratives, and coalitions (Kern 2011), the power of incumbents (Bosman et al 2014;Geels 2014), and the role of framing and interpretation (Hermwille 2016;Kriechbaum et al 2021). Second, integrating discursive concepts into transition research has enhanced the understanding of the production of cultural legitimacy for alternative ideas (Geels and Verhees 2011;Rosenbloom 2018) as well as the role of negative narratives for undermining the dominant socio-technical configuration (Roberts 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Discursive dynamics and lock-ins in socio-technical systems: an overview and a way forward

2022

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Understanding the dynamics of stability and change is key to accelerate sustainability transitions. This paper aims to advance and inspire sustainability transition research on this matter by collecting insights from interpretative environmental discourse literature. We develop a heuristic that identifies and describes core discursive elements and dynamics in a socio-technical system. In doing so, we show how the interplay of meta-, institutionalized, and alternative discourses, dominant, marginal, and radical narratives, as well as weak and strong discursive agency influence the socio-technical configuration. The heuristic suggests three discursive lock-ins reinforcing the stabilization of socio-technical systems: unchallenged values and assumptions, incumbents’ discursive agency, and narrative co-optation. Furthermore, it explores three pathways of discursive change: disruptive, dynamic and cross-sectoral. Overall, this paper puts forward a discursive perspective on sustainability transitions. It offers additional analytical approaches and concepts for discursive transition studies, elaborated insights on the dynamics within and between the analytical dimensions of a socio-technical system, as well as a theoretical baseline for analyzing discursive lock-in mechanisms and pathways of discursive change.

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Hype cycles during socio-technical transitions: The dynamics of collective expectations about renewable energy in Germany

Cited by 37 publications

References 81 publications

Dilution of expertise in the rise and fall of collective innovation

Dilution of expertise in the rise and fall of collective innovation

Innovations in Transport

Discursive dynamics and lock-ins in socio-technical systems: an overview and a way forward

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