[1] Improvements in knowledge of satellite drag coefficients confirm current reports of a long-term decline in thermospheric density. Operational thermospheric models, though highly sophisticated, did not predict the extent of the decline, posing a problem for orbit control and maintenance. Evidence is presented that current models could not predict the magnitude of the decline for two reasons: (1) they do not realistically describe the highly variable energy entering the thermosphere from the solar wind at all times, especially at geomagnetically quiet times, and (2) they overestimate the less volatile ultraviolet contribution by ignoring eddy diffusion which transfers energy from the thermosphere to the mesosphere. The historical background of operational thermospheric models and suggestions for improvement are provided.Citation: Moe, K., and M. M. Moe (2011), Operational models and drag-derived density trends in the thermosphere, Space Weather, 9, S00E10,