Hypotheses concerning the decline and poor recovery of Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Abstract

This paper updates previous reviews of the 1993 stock decline of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) in Prince William Sound, Alaska, and focuses on hypotheses about subsequent poor recovery. Recent age structured assessment modeling with covariate analysis indicates that the population dynamics of the sound's herring are influenced by oceanic factors, nutrition, and, most substantially, hatchery releases of juvenile pink salmon. For the 1993 decline, poor nutrition remains the most probable cause with disease a secondary response. Concerning poor recovery, we examined 16 potential factors and found three to be causal: oceanic factors, poor nutrition, and hatchery releases of juvenile pink salmon. Absences of strong year classes at both Sitka and Prince William Sound after 1993 indicate the action of large-scale ocean processes. Beyond regional-scale environmental factors, two factors specific to the sound influence the population dynamics of herring and are likely impeding recovery. First, pink salmon fry releases have increased to about 600 million annually and may disrupt feeding in young herring, which require adequate nutrition for growth and overwintering survival. Juvenile pink salmon and age-1 herring co-occur in nearshore areas of bays in late spring and summer, and available data on dietary overlap indicates potential competition between the age-1 juvenile herring and juvenile pink salmon. Field studies demonstrate that juvenile herring reduce food intake substantially in the presence of juvenile pink salmon. Second, overwintering humpback whales may consume potentially large amounts of adult herring, but further studies must confirm to what extent whale predation reduces herring biomass.

Evaluating signals of oil spill impacts, climate, and species interactions in Pacific herring and Pacific salmon populations in Prince William Sound and Copper River, Alaska

“…Potential predators include populations of humpback whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae ) or piscivorous marine birds [23,43,44]. Effects of these predators on herring and salmon may be direct, or indirect through apparent competition.…”

Predicting the effects of whale population recovery on Northeast Pacific food webs and fisheries: an ecosystem modelling approach

“…These results support the hypothesis that humpback whale recovery could already be reducing herring biomasses in parts of Southeast Alaska and Prince William Sound (NMFS, ), as well as off Haida Gwaii and the west coast of Vancouver Island (Ford et al ., ). However, the modest reductions seen in our models (typically ∼6–12%) suggest that whale recovery is unlikely to be the sole, or even a major, cause of the herring stock declines observed in British Columbia and Alaska (Schweigert et al ., ; Pearson et al ., ).…”

Factors influencing nest survival and productivity of Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) in Alaska

“…Abundance and community composition of ecologically important species of fish can vary dramatically with ocean climate (Hare and Mantua 2000), with consequent effects on breeding bird populations (Anderson and Piatt 1999). The potential for anthropogenic effects on forage fish populations (Smith et al 2011, Pearson et al 2012 emphasizes that decisions regarding opening Arctic waters to commercial fishing and development of offshore petroleum resources are relevant to marine piscivores, like the Red-throated Loon.…”