I Can See Clearly Now: Episodic Future Thinking and Imaginability in Perceptions of Climate-Related Risk Events

Bø, Simen; Wolff, Katharina

doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00218

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Past studies have shown that episodic simulation can support decision making in other domains, improving both patience (44,75) and prosociality (46). However, other studies have shown no effect of episodic simulation on risk perception (76,77), perhaps because narratives are more powerful when they are paired with statistics (57). Importantly, our intervention is the first to combine an episodic simulation with prediction error.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Pairing Facts with Imagined Consequences Improves Pandemic-Related Risk Perception

Sinclair¹,

Hakimi²,

Stanley³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The COVID-19 pandemic reached staggering new peaks during an ongoing global resurgence at the end of 2020. Although public health guidelines initially helped to slow the spread of disease, widespread pandemic fatigue and prolonged harm to financial stability and mental wellbeing have contributed to this resurgence. In this late stage of the pandemic, it is clear that new interventions are needed to support long-term behavior change. Here, we examined subjective perceived risk about COVID-19, and the relationship between perceived risk and engagement in risky behaviors. In Study 1 (N = 303), we found that subjective perceived risk is inaccurate but predicts compliance with public health guidelines. In Study 2 (N = 760), we developed a multi-faceted intervention designed to realign perceived risk with actual risk. Participants completed one of three variants of an episodic simulation task; we expected that imagining a COVID-related scenario would increase the salience of risk information and enhance behavior change. Immediately following the episodic simulation, participants completed a risk estimation task with personalized feedback about local risk levels. We found that information prediction error, a measure of surprise, drove beneficial change in perceived risk and willingness to engage in risky activities. Imagining a COVID-related scenario beforehand enhanced the effect of prediction error on learning. Importantly, our intervention produced lasting effects that persisted after a 1-3 week delay. Overall, we describe a fast and feasible online intervention that effectively changed beliefs and intentions about risky behaviors.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Pairing Facts with Imagined Consequences Improves Pandemic-Related Risk Perception

Sinclair¹,

Hakimi²,

Stanley³

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Past studies have shown that episodic simulation can support decision making in other domains, improving both patience ( 43 , 76 ) and prosociality ( 46 ). However, other studies have shown no effect of episodic simulation on risk perception ( 77 , 78 ), perhaps because narratives are more powerful when they are paired with statistics ( 57 ). Importantly, our intervention combines an episodic simulation with prediction error.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Pairing facts with imagined consequences improves pandemic-related risk perception

Sinclair

Hakimi

Stanley

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The COVID-19 pandemic reached staggering new peaks during a global resurgence more than a year after the crisis began. Although public health guidelines initially helped to slow the spread of disease, widespread pandemic fatigue and prolonged harm to financial stability and mental well-being contributed to this resurgence. In the late stage of the pandemic, it became clear that new interventions were needed to support long-term behavior change. Here, we examined subjective perceived risk about COVID-19 and the relationship between perceived risk and engagement in risky behaviors. In study 1 (n = 303), we found that subjective perceived risk was likely inaccurate but predicted compliance with public health guidelines. In study 2 (n = 735), we developed a multifaceted intervention designed to realign perceived risk with actual risk. Participants completed an episodic simulation task; we expected that imagining a COVID-related scenario would increase the salience of risk information and enhance behavior change. Immediately following the episodic simulation, participants completed a risk estimation task with individualized feedback about local viral prevalence. We found that information prediction error, a measure of surprise, drove beneficial change in perceived risk and willingness to engage in risky activities. Imagining a COVID-related scenario beforehand enhanced the effect of prediction error on learning. Importantly, our intervention produced lasting effects that persisted after a 1- to 3-wk delay. Overall, we describe a fast and feasible online intervention that effectively changed beliefs and intentions about risky behaviors.

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“…By showing that EFT is particularly effective in nudging individuals characterized by choice impulsivity, we corroborate that it may be a helpful mechanism for optimizing future-oriented decisions. We further envision that EFT may have a similar impact in other domains that inherently entail a tradeoff with the future, including societal challenges such as promoting more sustainable behavior (Bø & Wolff, 2020;Lee et al, 2020;Williams & Benoit, 2021). Peters & Büchel, 2010 and our subsequent publication (Benoit et al, 2011), we were excited to witness the accumulation of research into the impact of EFT on intertemporal choice.…”

Section: Caveatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Promoting farsighted decisions via episodic future thinking: A meta-analysis

Rösch¹,

Stramaccia²

2021

Preprint

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Episodic future thinking (EFT) denotes our capacity to imagine prospective events. It has been suggested to promote farsighted decisions that entail a trade-off between short-term versus long-term gains. Here, we meta-analyze the evidence for the impact of EFT on such intertemporal choices that have monetary or health-relevant consequences. Across 174 effect sizes from 48 articles, a three-level model yielded a medium-sized effect of g = 0.44, 95% CI [0.33, 0.55]. Notably, this analysis included a substantial number of unpublished experiments, and the effect remained stable following further adjustments for remaining publication bias. We exploited the observed heterogeneity to determine critical core components that moderate the impact of EFT. Specifically, the effect was stronger when the imagined events were positive, more vivid, and related to the delayed choice. We further obtained evidence for the contribution of the episodicity and future-orientedness of EFT. Of note, EFT had a greater impact in samples characterized by choice impulsivity (e.g., in obesity), suggesting that EFT can ameliorate maladaptive decision making. Additional analyses indicated that the effect is unlikely to merely reflect demand characteristics. Together, these results highlight the potential of EFT in promoting long-term goals, a finding that extends from the laboratory to real-life decisions.

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I Can See Clearly Now: Episodic Future Thinking and Imaginability in Perceptions of Climate-Related Risk Events

Cited by 19 publications

References 52 publications

Pairing Facts with Imagined Consequences Improves Pandemic-Related Risk Perception

Pairing Facts with Imagined Consequences Improves Pandemic-Related Risk Perception

Pairing facts with imagined consequences improves pandemic-related risk perception

Promoting farsighted decisions via episodic future thinking: A meta-analysis

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