<i>The Challenge of Man's Future</i>

Brown, Harrison; Thorndike, A. M.

doi:10.1063/1.3061946

Cited by 48 publications

(22 citation statements)

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“…It was quickly over, but I was sure that he was as much surprised as I was. 10 The meeting soon concluded, with little more said by the NOAA people.…”

Section: A Short Reprievementioning

confidence: 97%

“…Harrison Brown, who wrote about The Challenge of Man's Future (10) while I was a postdoctoral fellow at Caltech, was quite sure that fossil fuel could not be used at an ever faster rate indefinitely. He contemplated the fossil fuel era from its early stages to its peak and thence to its inevitable decline (10, p. 169), showing this progression graphically with two plots (Figure 15) adapted from an article in 1947 by the farsighted petroleum geologist King Hubbert.…”

Section: Where Do We Stand?mentioning

confidence: 98%

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Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth

Keeling

1998

Annu. Rev. Energy. Environ.

123

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When I began my professional career, the pursuit of science was in a transition from a pursuit by individuals motivated by personal curiosity to a worldwide enterprise with powerful strategic and materialistic purposes. The studies of the Earth's environment that I have engaged in for over forty years, and describe in this essay, could not have been realized by the old kind of science. Associated with the new kind of science, however, was a loss of ease to pursue, unfettered, one's personal approaches to scientific discovery. Human society, embracing science for its tangible benefits, inevitably has grown dependent on scientific discoveries. It now seeks direct deliverable results, often on a timetable, as compensation for public sponsorship. Perhaps my experience in studying the Earth, initially with few restrictions and later with increasingly sophisticated interaction with government sponsors and various planning committees, will provide a perspective on this great transition from science being primarily an intellectual pastime of private persons to its present status as a major contributor to the quality of human life and the prosperity of nations. CONTENTS

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“…It was quickly over, but I was sure that he was as much surprised as I was. 10 The meeting soon concluded, with little more said by the NOAA people.…”

Section: A Short Reprievementioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Where Do We Stand?mentioning

confidence: 98%

Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth

Keeling

1998

Annu. Rev. Energy. Environ.

123

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“…8 tonnes per capita (Brown 1954). Two methods for estimating stocks have evolved since then: The bottom-up approach combines an inventory of steel-containing products (buildings, bridges, cars, etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Steel all over the world: Estimating in-use stocks of iron for 200 countries

Pauliuk

Wang

Müller

2013

Resources, Conservation and Recycling

224

175

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ABSTRACT:Industrialization and urbanization in the developing world have boosted steel demand during the recent two decades. Reliable estimates on how much steel is required for high economic development are necessary to better understand the future challenges for employment, resource management, capacity planning, and climate change mitigation within the steel sector. During their use phase, steel-containing products provide service to people, and the size of the in-use stock of steel can serve as indicator of the total service level. We apply dynamic material flow analysis to estimate in-use stocks of steel in about 200 countries and 3 identify patterns of how stocks evolve over time. Three different models of the steel cycle are applied and a full uncertainty analysis is conducted to obtain reliable stock estimates for the period 1700-2008.Per capita in-use stocks in countries with a long industrial history, e.g., the U.S, the UK, or Germany, are between 11 and 16 tonnes, and stock accumulation is slowing down or has come to a halt. Stocks in countries that industrialized rather recently, such as South Korea or Portugal, are between 6-10 tonnes per capita and grow fast. In several countries, per capita inuse stocks of steel have saturated or are close to saturation. We identify the range of saturation to be 13±2 tonnes for the total per capita stock, which includes 10±2 tonnes for construction, 1.3±0.5 tonnes for machinery, 1.5±0.7 tonnes for transportation, and 0.6±0.2 tonnes for appliances and containers. The time series for the stocks and the saturation levels can be used to estimate future steel production and scrap supply.

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“…By the 1850s, the resource term expanded to include energy and other materials, urgently argued in the classic volume of British economist William Jevons (41) on the coal question. By the middle of the twentieth century, the United States would discount fears about resource scarcity and promote a new Malthusian numerator that included amenity (44)] and Brown's [see (45)] concerns with population growth, moving on to subsequent fears about food, materials, and energy availability, and the effects of toxic pollutants, and concluding with the formal synthesis of concerns in The Limits to Growth [see (46)]. …”

Section: Why Does the Malthusian Dilemma Persist?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Queries on the Human Use of the Earth

Kates¹

2001

Annu. Rev. Energy. Environ.

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s Abstract The central question of my scientific work has been, what is and ought to be the human use of the earth? It has been pursued collectively, with mentor, colleagues, students, and friends as a set of research questions related to hazards, hunger, and sustainable development. Regarding hazard, I tried to understand why people persist in occupying areas subject to natural and technological hazards and how adaptation made this possible. An extended stay in Africa to research both environment and development led to new queries. Why does hunger persist amid a world of plenty, and what can be done to end it? Can there be a transition to sustainability that over the next two generations would meet human needs and reduce hunger and poverty while maintaining the essential life support systems of the planet? All three themes and the research methods used to pursue them come together in an emerging sustainability science. CONTENTS

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The Challenge of Man's Future

Cited by 48 publications

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Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth

Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth

Steel all over the world: Estimating in-use stocks of iron for 200 countries

Queries on the Human Use of the Earth

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