The Czech Republic SimSmoke: The Effect of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking Attributable Deaths in the Czech Republic

Abstract

Background. The Czech Republic has a weak tobacco control record. This paper describes a simulation model examining the effect of future tobacco control policies in the Czech Republic on smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality.Methods. The model is developed using theSimSmokesimulation model of tobacco control policy. The model uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for the Czech Republic. It assesses, individually and in combination, the effect of taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment, and youth access policies.Results. With a comprehensive set of policies, smoking prevalence can be reduced by as much as 22% in the first year, by 35% in 20 years, and up to 40% in 30 years. By 2040, 5,873 deaths can be averted in that year alone. Without these policies, 113,004 people in the Czech Republic will die prematurely in the next 30 years.Conclusions. The model shows that significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tax increases, a high intensity media campaign, a comprehensive cessation treatment program, strong health warnings, stronger smoke-free air laws and marketing bans, and well-enforced youth access laws.

US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths

“…A second limitation is that the implied NVP impacts rely on the validity of the SimSmoke model. SimSmoke has been validated for the US [3,7,33] and many countries [92][93][94][95][96][97][98][99][100][101][102][103][104], and the US version of SimSmoke applied here was validated against the TUS-CPS and NHIS for the pre-NVP years 1993-2012. Our indirect method also implicitly assumes that the effects of cigarette-oriented policies are the same in the pre-and post-NVP period.…”

Smoking Czechs: Modelling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation

“…Interestingly, women represented only around 30% out of these deaths. Levy et al (1997) also studied the Czech smoking related mortality. Their study models future mortality rates for several tobacco policy scenarios using SimSmoke simulations.…”