Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Bamber, Jonathan; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger M.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1817205116

Cited by 476 publications

(404 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…This resource provides key evidence that ice flow throughout Greenland decelerated during the Holocene (MacGregor et al, 2016). Given the uncertainty that remains regarding the future of the WAIS (Bamber et al, 2019), the development of a similar archive of internal architecture across the WAIS, ultimately tied to ice core chronologies, has been established as an internationally agreed objective (e.g., https://www.scar.org/science/antarchitecture/home/). The Institute and Möller Ice Streams (IMIS) comprises 50% of the total area of the WAIS that discharges to the Weddell Sea via the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Englacial Architecture and Age‐Depth Constraints Across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Ashmore

Bingham

Ross

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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The englacial stratigraphic architecture of internal reflection horizons (IRHs) as imaged by ice‐penetrating radar (IPR) across ice sheets reflects the cumulative effects of surface mass balance, basal melt, and ice flow. IRHs, considered isochrones, have typically been traced in interior, slow‐flowing regions. Here, we identify three distinctive IRHs spanning the Institute and Möller catchments that cover 50% of West Antarctica's Weddell Sea Sector and are characterized by a complex system of ice stream tributaries. We place age constraints on IRHs through their intersections with previous geophysical surveys tied to Byrd Ice Core and by age‐depth modeling. We further show where the oldest ice likely exists within the region and that Holocene ice‐dynamic changes were limited to the catchment's lower reaches. The traced IRHs from this study have clear potential to nucleate a wider continental‐scale IRH database for validating ice sheet models.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Englacial Architecture and Age‐Depth Constraints Across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Ashmore

Bingham

Ross

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…In the absence of this detailed knowledge of the physical processes, quantified probabilistic approaches are being produced and are widely influencing decision-oriented documents today, including expert elicitation approaches (e.g., Bamber, & Aspinall, 2013;Bamber, et al, 2019;Horton et al, 2014 Earth's Future California Sea-Level Rise Guidance, 2018). However, over confidence in expert elicitations, can imply greater precision in our understanding than is merited and require extensive interpretive guidance that can be missing .…”

Section: Application Of Deconto and Pollardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications

et al. 2019

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An approach to analyze high-end sea level rise is presented to provide a conceptual framework for high-end estimates as a function of time scale, thereby linking robust sea level science with stakeholder needs. Instead of developing and agreeing on a set of high-end sea level rise numbers or using an expert consultation, our effort is focused on the essential task of providing a generic conceptual framework for such discussions and demonstrating its feasibility to address this problem. In contrast, information about high-end sea level rise projections was derived previously either from a likely range emerging from the highest view of emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (currently the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) or from independent ad hoc studies and expert solicitations. Ideally, users need high-end sea level information representing the upper tail of a single joint sea level frequency distribution, which considers all plausible yet unknown emission scenarios as well as involved physical mechanisms and natural variability of sea level, but this is not possible. In the absence of such information we propose a framework that would infer the required information from explicit conditional statements (lines of evidence) in combination with upper (plausible) physical bounds. This approach acknowledges the growing uncertainty in respective estimates with increasing time scale. It also allows consideration of the various levels of risk aversion of the diverse stakeholders who make coastal policy and adaptation decisions, while maintaining scientific rigor.

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“…As the ocean stores >90% of excess heat produced by climate change (Sandifer & Sutton-Grier, 2014), significant ocean warming is also expected to have wide impact on the productivity of fisheries, the distribution of oceanic disease-causing organisms, and the integrity of ocean ecosystems (Laffoley & Baxter, 2016;Sandifer & Sutton-Grier, 2014). Sea-level rise is another impact of warming, and is expected to result in a rise exceeding 2 m by 2100 (Bamber, Oppenheimer, Kopp, Aspinall, & Cooke, 2019).…”

Section: The Contemporary Oceanmentioning

confidence: 99%

What is the ocean: A sea‐change in our perceptions and values?

Rock

Sima

Knapen

2019

Aquatic Conservation

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Throughout human history, the ocean has occupied myriad cultural meanings, mythologies and practices, which were often founded on a notion of the sea as being so large and ‘powerful’ as to be immune to human impacts. These conceptions were grounded in observations from the surface or shoreline, and in periods when human activities in the ocean were more technologically and spatially limited than they are today. Advancements in science and technology have significantly altered how humans interact with and access the ocean, allowing exploration and exploitation of ocean areas and processes that were previously incomprehensible. This new capacity to understand and extract from the ocean might be expected to profoundly alter human relationships to it and conceptions of it. As public support and engagement with marine conservation and ‘blue economies’ stem from value and belief systems, future marine management will benefit from recognizing our historical marine relationships as context for changes in understanding, use, and the increasing environmental degradation faced by the ocean. This review focuses on perspectives of the ocean that have been held historically and queries their future persistence at this potential turning point in our relationship with the ocean.

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Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Cited by 476 publications

References 39 publications

Englacial Architecture and Age‐Depth Constraints Across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Englacial Architecture and Age‐Depth Constraints Across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications

What is the ocean: A sea‐change in our perceptions and values?

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