Identification and Quantification of Contributing Factors to the Criticality of Aircraft Loss of Separation

Serrano-Mira, Lidia; Maroto, Marta Pérez; Ayra, Eduardo S.; Pérez–Castán, Javier A.; Liang-Cheng, Schon Z. Y.; Arias, Víctor Gordo; Pérez-Sanz, Luis

doi:10.3390/aerospace9090513

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In particular, it is focused on the set of activities that must be performed in order to prevent a LOS from turning into a collision. According to [33], in which the contributing factors of a LOS are analyzed, the probability that a LOS occurs as a result of technical systems is practically negligible compared to the probability that a LOS occurs as a result of HF. Two fundamental variables of this model, which will be described in depth in the following section, are the Necessary Time and the Available Time.…”

Section: Framework Of the Ad Hoc Separation Minima Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preliminary Feasibility Study of the Ad Hoc Separation Operational Concept

et al. 2023

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The expected growth of air traffic in the coming decades demands an increase in airspace capacity, which is already close to saturation in many scenarios. One of the limiting factors of this capacity is the separation minima. At present, the separation standards that apply in a given volume of airspace are fixed, and their values were determined decades ago. Therefore, in order to increase airspace capacity, this is an area in which improvement is sought, namely through the implementation of new operational concepts, which include the redefinition of separation minima and the way they are applied. A key issue in this redefinition of separation minima is the question of the possibility of reducing the current standards. However, a reduction in the separation to a fixed value may not be a valid solution, as not all aircraft and ways of operation are the same. In this paper, the authors propose a new operational concept, the Ad Hoc or Variable separation minima. Ad Hoc separation refers to the application of different separation minima values in the same volume of airspace, depending on a set of factors, e.g., aircraft model and encounter geometry, among others. In this research, the factors that define these Ad Hoc separation minima and their relationships are discussed. A model for their determination is presented. Simulations are performed to analyze the operational feasibility of the Ad Hoc separation minima. The results show that the application of this concept is operationally feasible.

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Section: Framework Of the Ad Hoc Separation Minima Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preliminary Feasibility Study of the Ad Hoc Separation Operational Concept

et al. 2023

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“…However, pilots' performance deficiencies often worsen the situation, making it difficult to recover until it was too late. In addition, insufficient training, inadequate safety management systems, and aircraft design defects were also considered potential threats that could lead to LOC-I accidents [10]. Jack Smith et al [18] analyzed 46 general aviation LOC-I accidents in the UK from 2018 to 2019 based on the precursor sequence analysis model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results show that although LOC-I accidents account for only about 8% of commercial aircraft accidents; they have the highest fatality rate with 94% involving the deaths of passengers or crew members. This makes LOC-I a typical "low probability-high risk" accident type [10]. ICAO believes that although LOC-I accidents are uncommon, they often cause catastrophic consequences, with few survivors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Analysis of Airplane Upsets in Flight: An Integrated System Framework and Analysis Methodology

Meng

2023

Aerospace

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Generally, airplane upsets in flight are considered a precursor to loss of control in flight (LOC-I) accidents, and unfortunately LOC-I is classified as the leading cause of fatal accidents. To further explore the risk factors, causal relationships, and coupling mechanism of airplane upsets, this study proposed a risk analysis model integrating the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) and Bayesian Network (BN). Seventeen key risk factors leading to airplane upsets were identified through the analysis of typical accident cases and the literature. The ISM approach was used to construct the multi-level interpretative structural model of airplane upsets, which could reveal the causal relationship among various risk factors and risk propagation paths. Then, taking 286 accident/incident investigation data as training samples, a data-driven BN model was established using machine learning for dependency intensity assessment and inference analysis. The results reveal that the interaction among risk factors of fatal accidents caused by airplane upsets is more significant than that of non-fatal accidents/incidents. Risk factors such as pilot-induced oscillations/airplane-pilot coupling and non-adherence to Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)/neglect of cross-validation have a significant effect on airplane upsets in flight among seventeen risk factors. Moreover, this study also identifies the most likely set of risk factors that lead to fatal accidents caused by airplane upsets. The research results have an important theoretical significance and application value for preventing airplane upsets risk.

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“…Complementary, wide research was conducted on identifying and contributing factors involved in ATC provision. In so doing, [12,13] discusses the contributing factors involved in mid-air collisions. Simultaneously, mid-air collision fault trees were developed by Eurocontrol.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance Impact Assessment of Reducing Separation Minima for En-Route Operations

et al. 2022

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The required minimum separation distance between aircraft is believed to be one of the limiting factors on airspace capacity. In recent decades, aircraft separation rules have been modified by progressively shortening the required minimum separation distance. Following this trend in the coming years, a further reduction in the minimum separation distance would be expected. Still, a thorough assessment of the impact of this action on air traffic management performance should be carried out before investing in a reduction of separation minima. A Monte Carlo analysis of the en-route Spanish airspace shows that it is worth reducing the en-route minimum separation distance from 5 NM to 3 NM. This paper shows that a separation minima reduction will bring significant fuel savings, flight delay reduction, air traffic controller workload drop, and overall improvement of safety.

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Identification and Quantification of Contributing Factors to the Criticality of Aircraft Loss of Separation

Cited by 4 publications

References 20 publications

Preliminary Feasibility Study of the Ad Hoc Separation Operational Concept

Preliminary Feasibility Study of the Ad Hoc Separation Operational Concept

Risk Analysis of Airplane Upsets in Flight: An Integrated System Framework and Analysis Methodology

Performance Impact Assessment of Reducing Separation Minima for En-Route Operations

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