Alzheimer’s disease (AD), due to its multifactorial nature and complex etiology, poses challenges for research, diagnosis, and treatment, and impacts millions worldwide. To address the need for minimally invasive, repeatable measures that aid in AD diagnosis and progression monitoring, studies leveraging RNAs associated with extracellular vesicles (EVs) in human biofluids have revealed AD-associated changes. However, the validation of AD biomarkers has suffered from the collection of samples from differing points in the disease time course or a lack of confirmed AD diagnoses. Here, we integrate clinical diagnosis and postmortem pathology data to form more accurate experimental groups and use small RNA sequencing to show that EVs from plasma can serve as a potential source of RNAs that reflect disease-related changes. Importantly, we demonstrated that these changes are identifiable in the EVs of preclinical patients, years before symptom manifestation, and that machine learning models based on differentially expressed RNAs can help predict disease conversion or progression. This research offers critical insight into early disease biomarkers and underscores the significance of accounting for disease progression and pathology in human AD studies.