Identification of high caries risk children using prevalence of filled surfaces as predictor variable for incidence

Abstract

The purpose of the present study was to determine the validity of prevalence of filled surfaces at 9 years of age as a screening criterion for prediction of future caries incidence. Retrospective data were available for 114 children who had participated in an incremental dental care program from 7 to 16 years of age. There was a significant positive correlation between prevalence of filled surfaces (FS) at age 9 and increment of surfaces filled during the subsequent 7 years. Thus only 13% of the variation in increment of surfaces filled was explained by the variation in prevalence of FS. Subjects who had eight or more filled surfaces at 9 years of age were classed as the Expected H-group (22 subjects), while the Real H-group consisted of the 22 subjects who experienced the highest increment of surfaces filled between the ages of 9 and 16. Sensitivity and diagnostic power were both 45%, specificity 87%. While sensitivity decreased with increasing FS score at age 9, specificity and diagnostic power increased. A detailed analysis of the increment of surfaces filled each year from age 11 to 16 revealed that a considerable number of subjects not included in the H-groups also received many fillings.

Correlation between caries experience in primary and permanent dentition in birth‐cohorts 1950–70

“…Correlation coefficients of 0.3-0,4 have been reported between caries experience io the pritnary dentition and permanent teeth in the mixed dentition, especially the first molars (1^). Similar (5) or lower (1) conrelations have been found between caries experience in the permanent teeth of the early tnixed and caries increment in the completed pertnanent dentition. However, the association has not been investigated after both the pritnary and permanent teeth have been exposed to a potential caries risk for several years.…”

“…However, the correlation between caries experience of the permanent teeth at 8 yr, i.e. caries of first molars, and caries increment from 8 to 16 yr was considerably lower, r= O.I7-0.32, atid also somewhat lower than the 0.36 between 9 and 16' yr reported earlier (5).…”

Approximal caries progression in 13- to 15-year-old Danish children

“…During the 1970s it became evident that the variation in caries progression persisted even though the prevalence of dental caries decreased. This phenomenon was in general termed polarization, in the sense that a group of children, most often termed the 'risk group', was in need of extensive operative treatment compared with the rest of the children (17)(18)(19)(20)(21)(22). Even though such observations have contributed to a change in the clinical work from being entirely non-specific towards more differentiation, the concept of grouping according to standardized procedures for examinations and for preventive measures still exists.…”

Incidence and prediction of filled teeth from 12 to 18 years of age in a district in Norway

“…tive programs for patients at risk of caries and longer intervals between check-ups for non-risk individuals would be desirable from cost-benefit reasons. A number of different tests like caries prevalence, caries experience, oral hygiene level, rate of plaque formation, diet, buffer capacity of saliva, and the numbers oi Strep, mutans and lactobacilli in saliva have been developed for identification of individuals at risk of caries (4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12). Some of these tests are, however, time-consuming or are rarely available in the general dental clinic.…”

“…Several studies have shown some relationship between past caries experience and future caries incidence (6,(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18). A number of studies address the relationship between caries experience of the primary dentition and the early permanent dentition.…”