Identification of Land and Potential Production of Willow Biomass Crops Using a Multi-Criteria Land Suitability Assessment

Abstract

The New York State (NYS) Climate Act aims for net-zero emissions across all economic sectors by 2050, with renewable biofuels playing a key role in this transition. Approximately half of the biomass required for these biofuels is expected to come from purpose-grown sources like willow. To address this demand, we assessed land availability and biomass production potential for willow using a GIS-based fuzzy logic Land Suitability Assessment (LSA) model under three land scenarios: (1) including all cropland, (2) excluding conventional crops, and (3) excluding any cropland. Our findings show that NYS has the potential for between 1.07 and 1.59 million ha for willow cultivation, capable of producing 14.0 to 20.6 million dry Mg of biomass annually. Grassland/pasture accounts for 32–51%, and herbaceous cover for 32–48% of the potential areas. Between 33% and 53% of the area identified was in parcels that were 2–20 ha in size. These results highlight the considerable potential for purpose-grown biomass in NYS, supporting the state’s decarbonization goals and renewable energy transition.