Identification of Land Use Conflict Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation—Taking the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration as an Example

Abstract

Land use conflict is an inevitable and objective phenomenon during regional development, with significant impacts on both regional economic growth and ecological security. Scientifically assessing the spatiotemporal evolution of these conflicts is essential to optimize land use structures and promote sustainable resource utilization. This study employs multi-period land use/land cover remote sensing data from China to develop a model for the measurement of land use conflict from the perspective of the landscape ecological risk. By applying the optimal landscape scale method to determine the most appropriate analysis scale, this research investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use conflicts in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, by integrating the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with the Multi-Objective Programming (MOP) algorithm, this study simulates the spatial patterns of land use conflict in 2030 under four scenarios: Natural Development (ID), Economic Development (ED), Ecological Conservation (PD), and Sustainable Development (SD). The findings reveal that, from 2000 to 2020, the proportion of areas with strong and moderately strong conflict levels in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration increased by 2.19%, while the proportion of areas with weak and moderately weak conflict levels decreased by 1.45%, underscoring the growing severity of land use conflict. The predictions for 2030 suggest that the spatial pattern of conflict under various scenarios will largely reflect the trends observed in 2020. Under the ID scenario, areas with weak and moderately weak conflict levels constitute 57.5% of the region; this increases by 0.85% under the SD scenario. Conversely, areas experiencing strong and moderately strong conflict levels, which stand at 33.02% under the ID scenario, decrease by 1.04% under the SD scenario. These projections indicate that the SD scenario, which aims to balance ecological conservation with economic development, effectively mitigates land use conflict, making it the most viable strategy for future regional development.