Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China

Abstract

Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.

Study on the dominant causes of streamflow alteration and effects of the current water diversion in the Tarim River Basin, China

“…Due to the impacts of 18 episodes of ecological water transport to the lower reaches of Tarim River, the streamflow at Qiala illustrates a significant upward trend since 2000. To find out the cause of inconsistency to run‐off variation between headstreams and mainstream in the TRB, the period of 1960–2015 was divided into six periods: natural period (1960–1969), change period I (1970–1979), change period II (1980–1989), change period III (1990–1999), change period IV (2000–2009), and change period V (2010–2015) according to the study of Xue, Yang, Yang, et al ().…”

“…Three suggestions could be followed. The first suggestion is to strengthen the water resources management of the TRB and reduce the water consumption along the river (Xue, Yang, Yang, et al, ). The policy can be implemented to alleviate conflicts between the upstream and downstream regions and ensure continuous ecological water conveyance.…”

“…Water from the Kaidu River sometimes is transported to irrigation areas in the lower reaches of the Tarim River from Bosten Lake. Among the recharging headstreams, Aksu River is the primary water source, accounting for 73.2% supply to the Tarim River (Xue, Yang, Yang, et al, ). Stretched from Xiaojiake, the mainstream is divided into three sections: upstream from Alar (near Xiaojiake) to Yingbaza (495 km), midstream from Yingbaza to Qiala (398 km), and downstream from Qiala to the Taitema Lake (428 km).…”

“…The basin has a continental extreme arid climate with rare precipitation and strong evaporation. In recent years, expansion in cultivated areas, agricultural irrigation, and dam construction have a strong influence on sustainable development of natural hydrological processes in such arid regions (Hao, Chen, Xu, & Li, ; Xue, Yang, Yang, et al, ; Xue, Zhang, Yang, Zhang, & Sun, ).…”

“…The Tarim River Basin (TRB) in an extremely arid area of Northwest China is a representative of ecological fragility and environmental crisis caused by climate change and human activities (Huang, Krysanova, Zhai, & Su, ; Xue et al, ). Although streamflow of headstreams in the upper reaches has been increasing during the past 50 years influenced by climate factors (Liu, Xu, Huang, Charles, & Fu, ; Xu, Zhou, & Song, ), the natural ecosystems in the lower reaches, however, are nearing to collapse due to overexploitation of water resources (Chen et al, ; Tao, Gemmer, Song, & Jiang, ; Xu, Ye, Song, & Chen, ).…”