Purpose: The Gail Model has been used to quantify an individual woman's risk of developing breast cancer with clinical parameters; however, limited information has been available for application of this model among Chinese women. The aim of the present study was to estimate the five-year and lifetime breast cancer risk among women in Shanghai, China.
Materials and Methods:In this cross-sectional study, a total of 2,340 women residing in Shanghai, China participated using the Gail Model to estimate their relative risk for breast cancer. Participants were ≥35 years of age without a history of breast cancer.
Results:The mean age of the study subjects was 52.5 ± 10.8 years. Eighty-one women (3.5%) were classified as high-risk because their estimated five-year risk was over 1.66%. The estimated mean values for the five-year risk and lifetime risk for breast cancer were 0.73 ± 0.009% and 5.25 ± 0.005% respectively among study participants. For the lifetime risk, 17.6% of the women participants had a higher risk than the average woman. The risk increased with age and the history of breast cancer in the family among the study sample.
Conclusion:Overall, Chinese women in this study population were found to have comparable five-year risk of breast cancer but a lower lifetime risk based on the risk assessment of the Gail Model. Considering the rapid increase in breast cancer incidence in recent decades in China, the development of breast cancer models targeting the Chinese female population is needed.