As heavy metals occur naturally in soils at measurable concentrations and their natural background contents have significant spatial variations, identification and apportionment of heavy metal pollution sources across largescale regions is a challenging task. Stochastic models, including the recently developed conditional inference tree (CIT) and the finite mixture distribution model (FMDM), were applied to identify the sources of heavy metals found in the surface soils of the Pearl River Delta, China, and to apportion the contributions from natural background and human activities. Regression trees were successfully developed for the concentrations of Cd, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, As, and Hg in 227 soil samples from a region of over 7.2 × 10 4 km 2 based on seven specific predictors relevant to the source and behavior of heavy metals: land use, soil type, soil organic carbon content, population density, gross domestic product per capita, and the lengths and classes of the roads surrounding the sampling sites. The CIT and FMDM results consistently indicate that Cd, Zn, Cu, Pb, and Cr in the surface soils of the PRD were contributed largely by anthropogenic sources, whereas As, Ni, and Hg in the surface soils mostly originated from the soil parent materials.
■ INTRODUCTIONHeavy metals and their compounds are naturally ubiquitous throughout the environment. Heavy metals in soils come in the first place from weathering of the parent materials but can also result from accumulation of the metals released from industrial and agricultural activities. According to Alloway, 1 the major anthropogenic inputs of heavy metals to soils and the environment are metalliferous mining and smelting, agricultural and horticultural materials, sewage sludges, fossil fuel combustion, metallurgical industries, electronics, chemical and other manufacturing industries, waste disposal, sports shooting and fishing, and warfare and military training. Globally, mine tailings, smelter emissions, waste incineration, and atmospheric deposition are the most important sources of heavy metal pollution, whereas vehicular emissions are widely accepted as the main sources of heavy metals in urban topsoils and dust.2 In China, the major sources of heavy metal pollution are emissions from industrial operations, whereas wastewater irrigation and land fertilization with sludges contribute most to the heavy metal pollution of agricultural soils.