Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab4ca

Cited by 18 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…It can significantly modulate precipitation patterns in the tropics by affecting large-scale circulation systems and also cause climate anomalies and precipitation variations in the mid-high latitudes of both hemispheres through distinct teleconnection mechanisms (e.g., Curtis & Adler, 2003;Dai & Wigley, 2000;Ropelewski & Halpert, 1987). Consequently, ENSO can impact global floods (e.g., Chiew & McMahon, 2002;Emerton et al, 2017;Lee et al, 2018aLee et al, , 2018bWard, Eisner, et al, 2014;Ward, Jongman, et al, 2014;Ward et al, 2016), given the intrinsic connections between precipitation and the occurrence of flood events. Precipitation has thus even been applied as a direct predictor for floods (e.g., Stephens et al, 2015), even though the occurrence of floods also depends on antecedent surface conditions and other factors (e.g., Berghuijs et al, 2016;Emerton et al, 2017Emerton et al, , 2018Emerton et al, , 2019Sharma et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the ENSO Impact on Basin‐Scale Floods Using Hydrological Simulations and TRMM Precipitation

Yan

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of interannual climate variability with increasing attention for its impacts on water and flood management. The impact of ENSO on basin-scale floods during the TRMM period (1998-2013) is examined by using the streamflow outputs from the Dominant river Routing Integrated with VIC Environment model (DRIVE). Significant simultaneous correlations between flood indices and Niño 3.4 appear in many flood-prone river basins during peak flood months across both the tropics and midlatitudes especially for flood frequency and flood duration. Gauged by significant lag-correlations between floods and Niño 3.4, significant ENSO-leading-floods relations are found as well in many river basins in South America, south and southeastern Asia, and northern Africa. These ENSO-floods-relations can greatly enhance understanding of physical mechanisms relevant to the ENSO impact and may also improve the skills of basin-scale monthly-to-seasonal flood forecast, thus allowing for better preparedness and management of flood risks. Plain Language Summary As a naturally occurring phenomenon involving quasi-periodic variation of air pressure and sea surface temperature, the ENSO impacts global floods through its modulation of atmospheric circulations, weather, and precipitation. Previous studies on ENSO-floodsrelations are often limited in supporting practical flood disaster preparedness and risk analyses because of the lack of a "complete" reconstruction of past flood events likely due to scattered gauge-based streamflow data and/or coarse-resolution retrospective simulations. Here flood events at model grids and for individual river basins are identified using the outputs from the Dominant river Routing Integrated with VIC Environment model (DRIVE) with a high spatial resolution (0.125°× 0.125°) driven by the state-of-the-art satellite precipitation product TMPA. Simultaneous and lagged responses of basin-scale floods to ENSO are explored to provide an improved knowledge of the ENSO effect on global floods and a guidance for flood disaster planning and risk management for the regions consistently impacted by ENSO.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the ENSO Impact on Basin‐Scale Floods Using Hydrological Simulations and TRMM Precipitation

Yan

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Conversely, precipitation (Dai & Wigley, ; Syed et al, ; Mariotti, ; Syed, Giorgi, Pal, & Keay, ; Dimri, ; Lee, Ward, & Block, ), discharge anomalies (Barlow & Tippett, ; Emerton et al, ), and hydropower production (Ng, Turner, & Galelli, ) are typically positive during El Niño episodes, whereas drought in south‐west CA is more likely under concurrent La Niña (Barlow, Cullen, & Lyon, ; Barlow & Hoell, ; Hoerling & Kumar, ). Likewise, CA experiences below average precipitation and higher temperatures under strong Asian monsoons (Schiemann, Glazirina, & Schär, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia

Dixon

Wilby

2019

River Research & Apps

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This study develops a procedure for seasonal forecasting river discharge from headwaters above strategically important hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole indices were used as inputs. Predictability was evaluated for average summer inflows conditional on the tercile of the preceding winter climate mode. We find that the winter Niño 3.4 index was significantly positively correlated with following summer inflows to Nurek, Andijan, and Toktogul reservoirs during the period 1941–1980. Kruskal–Wallis and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests show significant differences in the distributions of summer inflows depending on previous winter Niño 3.4 for all three reservoirs. At Nurek, summer inflows were on average 19% greater following a winter El Niño. During 1941–2016, mean summer inflows to Nurek reservoir linked to previous November–December Niño 3.4 achieved a Heidke Hit Proportion of 51–59% (compared with 33% expected by chance). Acceptable predictions of summer inflow volume were made 44% of the time. Higher inflows are explained by a south‐westerly moisture flux that brings above average precipitation to Central Asia during winter El Niño conditions. Our procedure requires limited data, technical or computing resources—all considerations in data sparse, low capacity regions. Given planned developments of other large, headwater impoundments in Central Asia, early outlooks of discharge could contribute to improved dam safety, economic performance, and transboundary water sharing around such projects.

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“…() explains the link between snow mixed with rain episodes and negative ENSO values as detected by the Climate Prediction Centre in 1982, 1995, 2001, and 2008. According to the international literature (Compo et al, ; Eichler and Higgins, ; Zhang et al, ; Liu et al, ), these periods are characterized by high snow depth values due to the effects of La Niña, and the presence of rain during snowfall events can produce snow melt and ice jams during the months of March and April (Lee et al, ). The quality control performed on the manual series, due to the application of previously observed daily snow depth thresholds and the comparison with the values recorded in the surrounding stations, highlighted that the developed approach was able to detect random errors in the manual series with few records per year.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A quality control approach to better characterize the spatial distribution of snow depth over New Brunswick, Canada

Baronetti

Fratianni

Acquaotta

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The aim of this work is to develop, from a high‐resolution climate analysis, a quality control standard methodology applied to manual snow cover (HS) series managed by the Snow Survey Database in New Brunswick (Canada). The database collected snow depth data biweekly starting at the end of January until the end of April. A 30‐year (1981–2010) analysis of 60 weather stations belonging to two independent meteorological networks was performed. A quality control of the climatic series was performed to evaluate the homogeneity. Three snow depth climatic areas were defined by means of two geostatistical methods (Kriging and Cluster analyses) applied on monthly snow depth, precipitation and temperature data series. Then, for each cluster, the climatological thresholds that characterize a snow fall event during the cold months were detected. Subsequently, a quality control on the daily snow depth series recorded during the January to April period was performed. For each daily series, outlier values were identified by checking both the sudden day‐to‐day changes and extreme thresholds (95th percentile). The quality control was then carried out to the manual series and the observed doubtful events were compared with the snow depth values recorded in the nearby stations. The results show that for the daily snow depth series, the highest number of suspect events was recorded during the months of March and April, and the analysis also shows that there are rain‐on‐snow events. As for the manual records, questionable snow depth errors randomly distributed in the series were highlighted. Finally, in order to improve the spatial distribution of stations located in the Canadian territory, the results give evidence that, thanks to the high‐resolution climatic analysis, the proposed approach provides all the benchmarks required to conduct a quality control of snow depth series in absence of other auxiliary variables.

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Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

Cited by 18 publications

References 72 publications

Exploring the ENSO Impact on Basin‐Scale Floods Using Hydrological Simulations and TRMM Precipitation

Exploring the ENSO Impact on Basin‐Scale Floods Using Hydrological Simulations and TRMM Precipitation

A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia

A quality control approach to better characterize the spatial distribution of snow depth over New Brunswick, Canada

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