Identification of the Optimal Passenger Car Vehicle Fleet Transition for Mitigating the Cumulative Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050

Abstract

We present an optimization model for the passenger car vehicle fleet transition-the time-dependent fleet composition-in Germany until 2050. The goal was to minimize the cumulative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the vehicle fleet taking into account life-cycle assessment (LCA) data. LCAs provide information on the global warming potential (GWP) of different powertrain concepts. Meta-analyses of batteries, of different fuel types, and of the German energy sector are conducted to support the model. Furthermore, a sensitivity-analysis is performed on four key influence parameters: the battery production emissions trend, the German energy sector trend, the hydrogen production path trend, and the mobility sector trend. Overall, we draw the conclusion that-in any scenario-future vehicles should have a plug-in option, allowing their usage as fully or partly electrical vehicles. For short distance trips, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with a small battery size are the most reasonable choice throughout the transition. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) powered by compressed natural gas (CNG) emerge as promising long-range capable solution. Starting in 2040, long-range capable BEVs and fuel cell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (FCPHEVs) have similar life-cycle emissions as PHEV-CNG.

Real-driving-based comparison of the eco-impact of powertrain concepts using a data-driven optimization environment

“…In Table 4, a summary of the most relevant parameters of the investigated scenario is given, which are relevant to evaluate the GHG emissions and the TED for the different powertrain concepts. The parameters are meant to describe the scenario of Germany in the reference year 2030 and are applied for all results, presented in Section V. Specific emissions in the electricity supply 400 gCO2/kWh 13 Total vehicle mileage 250 000 km 14…”

“…For the first naturalistic driving profile, the pool-vehicle profile, a detailed discussion of the results is given. In 2 Based on [14]. 3 Based on [14].…”

“…In 2 Based on [14]. 3 Based on [14]. 4 Based on [4] with an assumption of 20% H2 via Power-to-X with renewable energies.…”

Special Issue on Future Powertrain Technologies

“…They open up space for diverse research, which is distributed over the entire vehicle design process. Recent research on this topic incorporates results for selecting and designing the powertrain topology [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] with their vehicle operating strategy [8,9], as well as results for handling the reliability of new powertrain components [10][11][12].…”

“…In [7], the optimal passenger car vehicle fleet transformation is developed based on lifecycle assessment. The results differ for short-range and long-range requirements, where battery electric vehicles are best for short-range.…”