Identification of the Tourism Risks for Z-Value Based Risk Assessment

Abstract

The growing importance of the tourism sector to the global economy contributes to the increase of research in tourism risks assessment. In view of this tendency, the results of research in the field of the risk analysis on tourists’ travels in various countries during the last decades have been analyzed. Commonly used in these studies statistical methods allow to reveal and identify country-specific tourism risks and threats. But it is necessary to underline that relevant statistical data on risks are available not in all cases and countries. Moreover, in most cases, the reliability of the information available is questionable. In order to improve the reliability and quality of the tourist risk assessment, it is proposed to consider tourist travel as a project. The proposed project approach to tourist risk analysis provides an opportunity to go beyond assessment based on available country-specific inferior statistical data and allows to develop a more flexible and versatile method for risk evaluation. Common risk factors and sub-factors for tourists were identified for further risk assessment using suggested by L. Zadeh Z-number. A bi-component Z-number Z = (A, B) with perception-based and imprecise parts A and B, allows taking into account the reliability of the information. Risk experts deal with the prediction like this one “very likely that the level of threat N is medium” or “extremely likely that this factor is very important”. This prediction can be formalized as a Z-number based evaluation and a pack of Z-valuations is considered as Z-information. Experts evaluate identified risk factors and sub-factors and their importance weight using Z-numbers.

Improving the urban heritage based on a tourism risk assessment using a hybrid fuzzy MADM method: The case study of Tehran's central district

“…Wang et al, 2019). The risks of destinations and tourists are related to the types of activities, experiences and the existence of risk sources (Holm et al, 2017;Nuriyev, 2020;Saint Akadiri et al, 2020). Tourism risk assessment should take an objective approach, so in many cases, tourism managers must use the tourist's experiences to assess the level of risk.…”

“…According to a literature review related to tourism, the interaction between tourism operations, destination planning, and using risk management for the sake of development has been ignored. The findings from tourism risk research can be help local governments and tourism operators to provide and design initiatives whose strategies manage the visitors' safety and augment selfprotective behaviours in tourism sites (Hasan et al, 2017;Nuriyev, 2020;J. Wang et al, 2019).…”

Análisis de los riesgos laborales en los guías de alta montaña, y su incidencia en el desarrollo del turismo de aventura

“…En la actualidad, el estudio de evaluación de riesgos en el turismo se relaciona en primer lugar con la actividad de la empresa turística (M. Nuriyev, 2021;Mu & Nepal, 2016). Y en segundo lugar se relaciona con los estudios de investigación del turismo en alta montaña; recalcando el hecho de que este tipo de turismo es cada vez más popular en el mundo, especialmente el extremo "alta montaña".…”