Identification of the Uncertainties for the Calibration of the Partial Safety Factors for Load in Tidal Turbines

Abstract

Tidal energy is nowadays one of the fastest growing types of marine renewable energy. In particular, Horizontal Axis Tidal Turbines (HATTs) are the most advanced designs and the most appropriate for standardization. This paper presents a review of actual design criteria focusing on the identification of the uncertainties that technology developers need to address during the design process. Key environmental parameters like turbine inflow conditions or predictions of extreme values are still grey areas due to the lack of site measurements and the uncertainty in metocean model predictions. A comparison of turbulence intensity characterization using different tools and at different points in time shows the uncertainty in the prediction of this parameter. Numerical models of HATTs are still quite uncertain, often dependent on experience of the people running them. In the reliability-based calibration of partial safety factors, the uncertainties need to be reflected on the limit state formulation. This paper analyses the different types of uncertainties present in the limit state equation. These uncertainties are assessed in terms of stochastic variables in the limit state equation. In some cases, advantage can be taken from the experience from offshore wind and oil and gas industries. Tidal turbines have a mixture of the uncertainties present in both industries with regard to partial safety factor calibration.