2015
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0142493
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Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

Abstract: BackgroundStructured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments.MethodsWe carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England … Show more

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Cited by 38 publications
(35 citation statements)
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“…Coid et al, ; Ullrich, Keers, & Coid, ), points raised by these authors merit some discussion. In support of their cross‐sectional design, which they inappropriately identified as causal, Coid et al () state that “The risk factor may … no longer be present in a subsequent time window when violence is measured … [and] significant associations may consequentially be missed” (p. 2). However, it should be clear that cross‐sectional models are not a solution to a lack of spatiotemporal contiguity; research designs should observe hypothesized leading indicators and subsequent violence in closer temporal proximity.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Coid et al, ; Ullrich, Keers, & Coid, ), points raised by these authors merit some discussion. In support of their cross‐sectional design, which they inappropriately identified as causal, Coid et al () state that “The risk factor may … no longer be present in a subsequent time window when violence is measured … [and] significant associations may consequentially be missed” (p. 2). However, it should be clear that cross‐sectional models are not a solution to a lack of spatiotemporal contiguity; research designs should observe hypothesized leading indicators and subsequent violence in closer temporal proximity.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Generalized estimating equations, rather than the more traditional methods of analyses, such as logistic regression, was used in an attempt to address some of the concerns in the literature about potential biases in regard to the predictive accuracy (Coid et al 2015). The results from the GEE produced larger standard errors and wider 95% CI, because the analyses took into account the correlated nature of the repeated measurements within individual patients in the present study.…”
Section: Dasa Risk Bandsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The use of logistic regression as an analytic approach does not take into account the repeated nature of the observations, which could result in bias (Coid et al . ) and erroneous conclusions regarding predictive accuracy.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…In addition, staff members may have their own untested traditions how to manage patients’ challenging behaviour on the wards because they are not always sufficiently aware which interventions are more cost-effective [42, 43] or are more effective, particularly in managing aggressive patient behaviour [40, 44] than others. Finally, the understanding of aggressive patient events is still unclear and there is a lack of studies investigating causal associations between risk factors and patient violence [45]. …”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%