Identifying historical and future potential lake drainage events on the western Arctic coastal plain of Alaska

Abstract

Arctic lakes located in permafrost regions are susceptible to catastrophic drainage. In this study, we reconstructed historical lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska between 1955 and 2017 using USGS topographic maps, historical aerial photography (1955), and Landsat Imagery (ca. 1975, ca. 2000, and annually since 2000). We identified 98 lakes larger than 10 ha that partially (>25% of area) or completely drained during the 62‐year period. Decadal‐scale lake drainage rates progressively declined from 2.0 lakes/yr (1955–1975), to 1.6 lakes/yr (1975–2000), and to 1.2 lakes/yr (2000–2017) in the ~30,000‐km2 study area. Detailed Landsat trend analysis between 2000 and 2017 identified two years, 2004 and 2006, with a cluster (five or more) of lake drainages probably associated with bank overtopping or headward erosion. To identify future potential lake drainages, we combined the historical lake drainage observations with a geospatial dataset describing lake elevation, hydrologic connectivity, and adjacent lake margin topographic gradients developed with a 5‐m‐resolution digital surface model. We identified ~1900 lakes likely to be prone to drainage in the future. Of the 20 lakes that drained in the most recent study period, 85% were identified in this future lake drainage potential dataset. Our assessment of historical lake drainage magnitude, mechanisms and pathways, and identification of potential future lake drainages provides insights into how arctic lowland landscapes may change and evolve in the coming decades to centuries.

Periglacial Lake Origin Influences the Likelihood of Lake Drainage in Northern Alaska

“…Using the developed lake origin product and decadal patterns of lake drainage in northern Alaska, we find the most vulnerable periglacial lakes to drain between 1985-1989 and 2015-2019 were small Thermokarst (non-yedoma) and large Yedoma lakes, respectively, whereas the most resilient lakes were large and medium-sized glacial and large Maar lakes ( Table 2). The discrepancy between lake drainage is likely due to the associated differences in permafrost ice content [14,17], as low to moderate ice content found adjacent to glacial and Maar lakes makes them relatively insensitive to thermo-erosional gully formation that is often responsible for abrupt lake drainage [18,35]. Although we did not observe any drainage of Maar lakes during our~30 year observation period (likely associated with low sample size and geologic origin), they are not entirely resistant to drainage.…”

“…Numerous studies have identified heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns of lake drainage across northern Alaska [6,17,18,34,35,37,[45][46][47]. In addition to landscape history, interacting climate and environmental controls are likely responsible for elevated rates of lake drainage, as anomalous precipitation, temperature, and snow cover may influence patterns of lake change [17,18,37,45].…”

“…In addition to landscape history, interacting climate and environmental controls are likely responsible for elevated rates of lake drainage, as anomalous precipitation, temperature, and snow cover may influence patterns of lake change [17,18,37,45]. In the yedoma-dominated tundra of the northern Seward Peninsula, abrupt lake drainage triggered by the gradual expansion of lake boundaries [6] is also hastened by increases in precipitation that facilitate bank overtopping and gully formation [35]. More recently, warmer and wetter climates have triggered potential widespread talik formation, likely responsible for the recent pulse of lake drainage in northwestern Alaska [17,18].…”

“…Landsat 7 ETM+ surface reflectance data were pre-processed by the United States Geological Survey and downloaded by GEE in a radiometrically, atmospherically, and geometrically terrain-corrected state. The earliest possible time period was selected to represent the lake distribution and extent prior to recent widespread lake drainage [17,18,[34][35][36]. Therefore, we acquired 273 Landsat scenes during the ice-free period (1 July to 1 September) between 1985 and 1989 to create a seamless image mosaic.…”

Mosaicking Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data to Enhance LandTrendr Time Series Analysis in Northern High Latitude Permafrost Regions

“…An annual temporal resolution of time series analysis allows to assess highly dynamic permafrost pulse disturbances and possibly even identify the main disturbance drivers. Thermokarst lake dynamics and particularly lake drainage events have currently only been identified and described based on multiple-date images or trend analysis [93][94][95][96]. An annual time series analysis will help to narrow down change drivers and identify inter-annual lake dynamics, such as partial or full drainage, or intermittent infilling, which otherwise remain undiscovered in multi-year trend data.…”