Identifying in situ climate refugia for plant species

Abstract

Identification of refugia from climate change is increasingly considered important for biodiversity conservation, but the distribution of putative refugia may vary across alternative climate scenarios, impeding conservation decision-making. Based on 117 plant species representative of ecoregions within south-eastern Australia, we provide a case study identifying in situ refugia across a spectrum of plausible future climates. We define in situ refugia as areas that currently contain populations of the target species, and are projected to remain climatically suitable in the future. Refugia were identified across scenarios describing futures that are, relative to 1990-2009, warmer and wetter, warmer/drier, hotter/wetter, and hotter with little precipitation change. Despite substantial variation in the spatial extent and longevity of climate refugia across species, ecoregions and climate scenarios, clear patterns emerged. By 2070, refugia for species in 1) deserts and xeric shrublands; 2) mediterranean forests, woodlands and shrublands; and 3) temperate and tropical grasslands are likely to be least extensive under a hotter/ wetter future. Conversely, wetter conditions may lead to broader refugia for species in temperate forests. We identified areas of congruence where high richness refugia (refugia for  50% of representative species) were projected to occur irrespective of the climate scenario. These regions therefore appear robust to uncertainty about climate change, presenting clear targets for conservation attention. Our approach provides valuable information for decision-makers, enabling them to identify and visualise the spatial arrangement of refugia under contrasting scenarios of environmental change. This reveals management options in the context of climate uncertainty and facilitates informed prioritisation of conservation resources.

Climate change will decrease the range size of snake species under negligible protection in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot

“…The complex relationship of this changing process with organisms has been addressed from various perspectives, with studies evaluating how climate changes affect the individual performance 5,6 , demographic dynamics 7,8 , species composition and species richness 9,10 . Predicted outcomes include adaptation to novel conditions 11 , shift, expansion or retraction of ranges 10,12 , isolation to unaffected areas or climatic refuges 13–15 and extinction events 1 . There is a growing consensus that management decisions for biodiversity conservation must be taken in light of the potentially catastrophic effects of climate change 16 .…”

Modelling the spatial distribution of selected North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios

“…At present, selection criteria for national parks in Canada emphasise representing ecological land zones, and implementation often is decided based on the location of willing landowners (Parks 1997). Implementation is also hindered by limited knowledge about the dispersal and colonisation capabilities of many mammal species (Ashcroft 2010, Baumgartner et al 2018).…”

The risk to Myrtaceae of Austropuccinia psidii, myrtle rust, in Mexico

“…These maps allowed us to identify those areas where projections were extrapolated (Elith, Kearney, & Phillips, ). All modelling and calculation of statistics were performed in R version 3.1.2 (R Core Team ), using customized code based on “dismo” (Hijmans, Phillips, Leathwick, & Elith, ) to fit Maxent models, with additional code from “rmaxent” (Baumgartner, Wilson, & Esperon‐Rodriguez, ).…”