Identifying Influencing Factors of Regional Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Based on PSR-TGRC Method

Abstract

Regional agricultural drought vulnerability (RADV) is a complex nonlinear problem caused by the interaction of multiple factors, and an objective and systematic method is proposed by this paper to identify its influencing factors, which plays an important role in preventing and regulating the risks of regional agricultural drought. Firstly, to provide a reference for the evaluation problem in selecting the number of factors, the influencing factors affecting RADV are revealed by using the method of phase space reconstruction (PSR). Secondly, to rank the importance of influencing factors, a grey trend relational analysis (TGRA) method is proposed, considering the dynamic development relationship between the RADV index and the influencing factors and integrating the absolute and relative variation of sequences in each corresponding period. Finally, to reduce the collinearity between the influencing factors, a grey trend relational clustering (TGRC) analysis method is proposed. According to the above steps, the process of identifying factors based on PSR-TGRC method is formed. Taking Henan Province as an example, 14 main influencing factors and their effects on RADV are identified from all 42 factors, and the identification results which are consistent with the actual drought relief work show the rationality and practicality of PSR-TGRC method and provide theoretical support for formulating strategies of regional agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.