Identifying potential gray wolf habitat and connectivity in the eastern USA

Bosch, Merijn van den; Beyer, Dean E.; Erb, John D.; Gantchoff, Mariela G.; Kellner, Kenneth F.; MacFarland, David; Norton, Deborah; Patterson, Brent R.; Tack, J. L. Price; Roell, Brian J.; Belant, Jerrold L.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109708

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…We presume that the minimum size of the Wisconsin wolf population during years with harvest (660–834 individuals) and connectivity with wolf populations in Minnesota, Michigan, and Ontario 60 helped maintain pack dynamics through replacement of removed individuals with dispersers. We were unable to consider the spatial distribution of wolf harvests though harvest quotas and harvest rates in Wisconsin differ among management zones 20 , 21 , 40 , 41 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of lethal management on gray wolf pack persistence and reproduction in Wisconsin, USA

Zubiria Perez,

Kellner,

MacFarland

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Direct human-caused mortality accounts for about half of all large mammal mortality in North America. For social species like gray wolves (Canis lupus), the death of pack members can disrupt pack structure and cause pack dissolution, and mortality of breeding adults or wolves during reproduction and pup-rearing can decrease pup recruitment. We estimated minimum and maximum probability of wolf pack persistence in Wisconsin, USA, during biological years (15 April–14 April) 2011–2019 and evaluated the influence of pack size and legal harvest mortality on pack persistence during 2012–2014. Harvests comprised 75–161 mortalities within 194 monitored packs during 2012–2014, with 56–74% of packs having no wolves harvested each year. As an index of reproduction during 2013–2019, we also estimated the proportion of packs where pups responded to howl surveys. We evaluated the influence of pack size, legal harvest, and agency removal on reproduction during 2013–2015. Annual maximum pack persistence probability was uniformly high (0.95–1.00), and annual minimum pack persistence probability ranged from 0.86–0.98 with a possible decline during years of harvest. Reproduction was similar in years following harvest and agency removal (2013–2015, pup response = 0.27–0.40), and years without harvest or agency removal the year prior (2016–2019, pup response = 0.28–0.66). Pack size had a positive effect on pack persistence and reproduction. Total number of wolf mortalities and number of adult male and females removed did not influence pack persistence or reproduction. We suggest that low per-pack mortality, timing of harvest and agency removal, and harvest characteristics during 2012–2014 supported stable pack persistence and reproduction.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of lethal management on gray wolf pack persistence and reproduction in Wisconsin, USA

Zubiria Perez,

Kellner,

MacFarland

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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“…Area suitability for wolves is negatively related to proportion of anthropogenic land use (i.e., pasture, urban) and positively to proportion of natural cover (i.e., forest, grassland) (Gantchoff et al, 2022; van den Bosch et al, 2022). Two scenarios (SSP 1 and SSP 2) of land use and climate change estimated increases in forest cover, creating additional habitat primarily in southeastern Minnesota, adjacent southwestern Wisconsin, and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, while scenarios SSP 3 and SSP 5 estimated minimal change in forest cover and insignificant change in habitat amounts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our results are consistent with the climatic generalism of wolves (Boitani, 2003) and suggest that the effects of forecasted climate change and land use change through 2090 would either have no effect or would increase the amount of wolf habitat within Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. While other factors including low habitat connectivity (van den Bosch et al, 2022), high anthropogenic mortality (Hill et al, 2022), or increases in disease could adversely affect wolves and their distribution within the Great Lakes region, projected land use and climate change appears unlikely to be of direct concern. Identifying areas wolves may recolonize under forecasted land use and climate change can be used to facilitate their coexistence with humans in areas where recolonization of historical range is deemed desirable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Science‐based predictions of species range changes are essential to plan future wildlife management and conservation efforts (Guisan et al, 2013). We previously estimated recolonization potential for gray wolves in the eastern United States (van den Bosch et al, 2022) and suitable habitat within Great Lakes region states currently occupied by wolves. Here, we develop projections of future wolf habitat in the currently wolf‐occupied states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan under several land use and climate change scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Gray wolf range in the western Great Lakes region under forecasted land use and climate change

et al. 2023

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Land use and climate change alter species distributions worldwide, and detecting and understanding how species ranges shift can facilitate conservation planning and action. Following extirpation from most of the contiguous United States, gray wolves (Canis lupus) have partially recolonized former range in the western Great Lakes region, but it is unknown how land use and climate change may alter amounts of wolf habitat. Using wolf observation data collected during winters 2017–2020 in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, we created ensemble models to predict how land use and climate change may affect the amount of wolf habitat within these states. A projection model for the western Great Lakes region suggested three of four scenarios of land use and climate change will lead to 9%–35% increases in wolf habitat, while a solely climate‐based projection model supported our expectation that changes in climate, in isolation, will have limited effect on current wolf range. Our results support stable or increasing amounts of wolf habitat in the western Great Lakes region during the 21st century, suggesting limited or no adverse effects on the current distribution or further recolonization of wolves. Our findings can inform policy development regarding wolf conservation and identify areas where recolonization is plausible, thus where promoting human–wolf coexistence is most pertinent.

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“…For example, low road density and natural cover determined range expansion and habitat selection in the Midwest of the United States (Gantchoff et al, 2022;Mladenoff et al, 2009), whereas forest cover and food resources have been important in boreal forests (Lesmerises et al, 2012). Avoidance of high human-density areas is also a common pattern (van den Bosch et al, 2022). Analyses of North American wolf habitat selection patterns over time and space have thus shown considerable variability, possibly related to the increasing wolf population size (Mladenoff et al, 1997(Mladenoff et al, , 2009.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding habitat selection of range‐expanding populations of large carnivores: 20 years of grey wolves (Canis lupus) recolonizing Germany

Planillo,

Wenzler‐Meya,

Reinhardt

et al. 2023

Diversity and Distributions

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AimThe non‐stationarity in habitat selection of expanding populations poses a significant challenge for spatial forecasting. Focusing on the grey wolf (Canis lupus) natural recolonization of Germany, we compared the performance of different distribution modelling approaches for predicting habitat suitability in unoccupied areas. Furthermore, we analysed whether grey wolf showed non‐stationarity in habitat selection in newly colonized areas, which will impact the predictions for potential habitat.LocationGermany.MethodsUsing telemetry data as presence points, we compared the predictive performance of five modelling approaches based on combinations of distribution modelling algorithms—GLMM, MaxEnt and ensemble modelling—and two background point selection strategies. We used a homogeneous Poisson point process to draw background points from either the minimum convex polygons derived from telemetry or the whole area known to be occupied by wolves. Models were fit to the data of the first years and validated against independent data representing the expansion of the species. The best‐performing approach was then used to further investigate non‐stationarity in the species' response in spatiotemporal restricted datasets that represented different colonization steps.ResultsWhile all approaches performed similarly when evaluated against a subset of the data used to fit the models, the ensemble model based on integrated data performed best when predicting range expansion. Models for subsequent colonization steps differed substantially from the global model, highlighting the non‐stationarity of wolf habitat selection towards human disturbance during the colonization process.Main ConclusionsWhile telemetry‐only data overfitted the models, using all available datasets increased the reliability of the range expansion forecasts. The non‐stationarity in habitat selection pointed to wolves settling in the best areas first, and filling in nearby lower‐quality habitat as the population increases. Our results caution against spatial extrapolation and space‐for‐time substitutions in habitat models, at least with expanding species.

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Identifying potential gray wolf habitat and connectivity in the eastern USA

Cited by 11 publications

References 53 publications

Effects of lethal management on gray wolf pack persistence and reproduction in Wisconsin, USA

Effects of lethal management on gray wolf pack persistence and reproduction in Wisconsin, USA

Gray wolf range in the western Great Lakes region under forecasted land use and climate change

Understanding habitat selection of range‐expanding populations of large carnivores: 20 years of grey wolves (Canis lupus) recolonizing Germany

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