Identifying regional COVID-19 presence early with time series analysis

Abstract

The first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United States was January 20, 2020 in Washington, while the first globally confirmed cases were in China in December 2019. The CDC's Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network is used to track the amount of people who seek medical attention for influenza-like illnesses, along with the illness cause. The metric rILI- is used to assess the amount of people who test negative for influenza or any other specific cause. To assess the evidence of COVID-19 presence in the US in late December 2019 or early January 2020, rILI- data from 2010 to mid-March 2020 was used to perform three types of analysis. First, we forecast prediction intervals using data until mid-November 2019 and compared the predictions with observed values for the subsequent 16 weeks. Second, we performed residual hypothesis testing by removing the trend and seasonality in order to compare residuals from before and after November 17, 2019. Third, we used changepoint analysis to identify major changes in trend and seasonality. This study provides strong evidence of COVID-19 presence in the US in late December 2019 or early January 2020. Combined with the knowledge that COVID-19 was spreading across other parts of the world, anomalous patterns in ILINet data should have been a warning sign that COVID-19 was already spreading in the US. The purpose of the study was not to identify specific states, but South Dakota has the strongest evidence of any US state, followed by California, Delaware, Maine, and New Mexico.

Análisis Predictivo Del Algoritmo Para Una Prevención Óptima en El Tiempo De Coronavirus (Covid-19) Durante Los Días De Cuarentena

“…It is proposed to study the dynamic of COVID-19 in every country as a polynomial model that can be correlated each other according to optimize prediction answers, there is no mathematical model that adapts to the predictions such as the number of infected people and the quantity of deceased people (Kruse & Alkhushayni, 2020;Kucharski et al, 2020;Marmarelis, 2020;Ping, 2020;Rustam et al, 2020;Trigger & Czerniawski, 2020;Wang et al, 2020;Yuankang et al, 2020). Hence, every adaptive coefficients of matrix can be translated as interchanging information between every country, regarding to share many details and steps that could deal with this pandemic.…”

Using an Administrative and Clinical Database to Determine the Early Spread of COVID-19 at the US Department of Veterans Affairs during the Beginning of the 2019–2020 Flu Season: A Retrospective Longitudinal Study

“…An increase in the rate of ED encounters for CLS occurred during both March-September 2020, a known period of the initial COVID-19 surge, and October 2019-February 2020, before there was any known spread of COVID-19. While previous studies reported an early presence of COVID-19 due to increases in ILI or non-influenza ILI during early 2019-2020 [13][14][15][16][17][18], our findings offer a more detailed perspective as we examined visits for symptoms consistent with COVID-19 and separately for influenza and non-influenza-ILI. Since all three symptom categories were not mutually exclusive, it can be difficult to evaluate whether the increases observed in other studies with combined categories were indeed due to increases in CLS.…”

“…Evidence suggests that COVID-19 might have been present in China [1,2], Europe [3][4][5][6][7][8] and in the United States (US) [9][10][11] much earlier than 20 January 2020 when the first COVID-19 case [9], or January 30 when the first person-to-person transmission were reported in the US [12]. In the US, the early spread of COVID-19 was suggested by increases in Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) reported by the ILI Surveillance Network (ILINet), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) database [13][14][15][16]. An online survey in the US showed an increase in ILI among influenza-vaccinated adults in 2019-2020 compared to the previous year [17], and a study using electronic health records reported a significant increase in ED visits for cough and excess hospitalizations for acute respiratory failure between late December 2019 and February 2020 [18].…”