Identifying Spatial Determinants of Rice Yields in Main Producing Areas of China Using Geospatial Machine Learning

Abstract

Rice yield is essential to global food security under increasingly frequent and severe climate change events. Spatial analysis of rice yields becomes more critical for regional action to ensure yields and reduce climate impacts. However, the understanding of the spatially varied geographical, climate, soil, and environmental factors of rice yields needs to be improved, leading to potentially biased local rice yield prediction and responses to climate change. This study develops a spatial machine learning-based approach that integrates machine learning and spatial stratified heterogeneity models to identify the determinants and spatial interactions of rice yields in the main rice-producing areas of China, the world’s largest rice-producing nation. A series of satellite remote sensing-derived variables are collected to characterize varied geographical, climate, soil, and environmental conditions and explain the spatial disparities of rice yields. The first step is to explore the spatial clustering patterns of the rice yield distributions using spatially global and local autocorrelation models. Next, a Geographically Optimal Zones-based Heterogeneity (GOZH) model, which integrates spatial stratified heterogeneity models and machine learning, is employed to explore the power of determinants (PD) of individual spatial variables in influencing the spatial disparities of rice yields. Third, geographically optimal zones are identified with the machine learning-derived optimal spatial overlay of multiple geographical variables. Finally, the overall PD of various variables affecting rice yield distributions is calculated using the multiple variables-determined geographically optimal zones and the GOZH model. The comparison between the developed spatial machine learning-based approach and previous related models demonstrates that the GOZH model is an effective and robust approach for identifying the spatial determinants and their spatial interactions with rice yields. The identified spatial determinants and their interactions are essential for enhancing regional agricultural management practices and optimizing resource allocation within diverse main rice-producing regions. The comprehensive understanding of the spatial determinants and heterogeneity of rice yields of this study has a broad impact on agricultural strategies and food security.