Identifying species at extinction risk using global models of anthropogenic impact

Abstract

The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Endangered Species employs a robust, standardized approach to assess extinction threat focussed on taxa approaching an end-point in population decline. Used alone, we argue this enforces a reactive approach to conservation. Species not assessed as threatened but which occur predominantly in areas with high levels of anthropogenic impact may require proactive conservation management to prevent loss. We matched distribution and bathymetric range data from the global Red List assessment of 632 species of marine cone snails with human impacts and projected ocean thermal stress and aragonite saturation (a proxy for ocean acidification). Our results show 67 species categorized as 'Least Concern' have 70% or more of their occupancy in places subject to high and very high levels of human impact with 18 highly restricted species (range <100 km 2 ) living exclusively in such places. Using a range-rarity scoring method we identified where clusters of endemic species are subject to all three stressors: high human impact, declining aragonite saturation levels and elevated thermal stress. Our approach reinforces Red List threatened status, highlights candidate species for reassessment, contributes important evidential data to minimize data deficiency and identifies regions and species for proactive conservation.

Biodiversity hotspots: A shortcut for a more complicated concept

“…For example, the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (http://www.iucnredlist.org/) was conceived for this purpose becoming through time the most used system for assigning species' threat status (Keith et al, 2014). Nowadays the IUCN Red List may be used to aid effective conservation strategies by incorporating genetic data (Rivers et al, 2014), in conjunction with models to detect extinction risk from climate change (Keith et al, 2014) and to identify species at extinction risk using global models of anthropogenic impact (Peters et al, 2014).…”

Toward multifactorial null models of range contraction in terrestrial vertebrates

“…Understanding range contraction is important for conservation and management, particularly if we hope to accurately predict future range changes and assess the effects of new threats (Thomas et al , , Newbold et al , Peters et al , Selwood et al , Stanton et al ). Our global study based on data from four different groups of vertebrates reveals the need to develop more realistic null models to use as baselines.…”

‘Sum of inverse range-sizes’ (SIR), a biodiversity metric with many names and interpretations

“…Clearly, Eq. (2) implemented via grid cell occupancy measures frequency and/or AOO (Peters et al 2015), and does not account for the geographical relationship of the cells, or EOO. Guerin et al (2015) reworked 'weighted endemism' (i.e.…”

“…Range rarity is a major consideration for conservation planning because it informs spatial management priorities and can be estimated from readily available incidence data (Crisp et al 2001;Peters et al 2015). Restriction in area of occupancy (AOO), extent of occurrence (EOO) or landscape-scale frequency is a basic species conservation metric because species with more restricted ranges are considered at greater risk of extinction and contribute to biological uniqueness (Csuti et al 1997;Crisp et al 2001;Peters et al 2015).…”

“…Restriction in area of occupancy (AOO), extent of occurrence (EOO) or landscape-scale frequency is a basic species conservation metric because species with more restricted ranges are considered at greater risk of extinction and contribute to biological uniqueness (Csuti et al 1997;Crisp et al 2001;Peters et al 2015). Meanwhile, species richness is established as a general metric for biogeography and conservation planning (Steck et al 2006).…”