Identifying the Causes of Issue Attention and Policy Change: Evidence from U.S. Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Policy, 2008

Abstract

The flow of attention in the policy process is dynamic and disruptive. While we know changes in issue attention often result in policy change, the causal mechanisms underlying the different stages of the attention allocation process remain unclear. This article uses Punctuated Equilibrium Theory to examine an underdeveloped aspect of issue attention within policy-making institutions: how specific policy indicators influence the entry and exit of issues on policy-making agendas. Partisan issue attention in the House of Representatives is used to analyze a significant change to U.S. offshore oil and natural gas drilling policy in 2008. The results highlight how historically high gasoline prices precipitated a shift in attention to offshore drilling and subsequent policy change. Moreover, gasoline prices Granger-cause attention to energy policy in partisan speeches over time. The analysis further reveals how competing policy frames and a salient focusing event shaped congressional and public discourse, leading to subsequent changes in attention. Taken together, the findings broaden our understanding of the policy process by identifying the specific forces behind the entry and exit of issues on the policy-making agenda. Identificando las causas de la atenci on a temas y cambios pol ıticos: evidencia obtenida de la pol ıtica de extracci on de petr oleo y gas natural costa afuera de 2008El flujo de atenci on en el proceso pol ıtico es din amico y disruptivo. A pesar de que sepamos que los cambios en atenci on a los temas resultan a menudo en cambios pol ıticos, los mecanismos causales que est an por debajo de las diferentes etapas del proceso de asignar atenci on permanecen inciertos. Este art ıculo utiliza la teor ıa del equilibrio puntuado para examinar un aspecto subdesarrollado de la atenci on a temas dentro de las instituciones de creaci on de pol ıticas: c omo los indicadores pol ıticos espec ıficos influencian la entrada y salida de problemas en las agendas de creaci on de pol ıticas. La atenci on a problemas partidistas en la C amara de Representantes se usa para analizar un cambio significativo a la pol ıtica de perforaci on costa afuera de petr oleo y gas natural en 2008. Los resultados resaltan c omo los precios hist oricamente altos de la gasolina apresuraron un cambio en atenci on a la bs_bs_banner perforaci on costa afuera y el cambio pol ıtico posterior. Adicionalmente, los precios de la gasolina tienen el efecto causal de Granger en la atenci on a la pol ıtica de energ ıa en discursos partidistas con el tiempo. El an alisis revela adicionalmente c omo los marcos pol ıticos rivales y un enfoque destacado dieron forma al discurso p ublico y del congreso, lo que llev o a cambios subsiguientes en atenci on. En conjunto, los hallazgos ampl ıan nuestro entendimiento del proceso pol ıtico al identificar las fuerzas espec ıficas detr as de la entrada y salida de temas en la agenda de creaci on de pol ıticas.

Party Messaging in the U.S. House of Representatives

“…When one party goes on message, the other party responds at the same time and on the same general topic to ensure its competitor does not gain the advantage of uncontested messaging. Similar patterns between the parties have been observed within House one-minute speeches on a month-to-month basis (Hughes 2018a, 2018b). This “counterframing” strategy is effective at minimizing or nullifying the effects of the other party’s message (Chong and Druckman 2007, 2010).…”

“…However, effective minority party messaging campaigns may highlight an issue so effectively that the majority party responds with legislation. For example, in 2008, a Republican messaging campaign led to the House Democrats allowing a change to offshore drilling policy through an appropriations bill (Hughes 2018b). 6.…”

Over a Decade of Scholarship on the Politics and Policy of Science and Technology

“…The next two articles are interested in agenda setting. T. Hughes (2018) refines our understanding of how external forces, such as focusing events, affect the entry and exit of issues on the policy-making agenda. The article focuses on changes to U.S. offshore oil and natural gas drilling policies that occurred in 2008.…”