Identifying the Impact-Related Data Uses and Gaps for Hydrometeorological Impact Forecasts and Warnings

Abstract

Impact Forecasts and Warnings (IFW) are key to resilience for hydrometeorological hazards. Communicating the potential social, economic, and environmental hazard impacts allows individuals and communities to adjust their plans and better prepare for the consequences of the hazard. IFW systems require additional knowledge about impacts, and underlying vulnerability and exposure. Lack of data or knowledge about impacts, vulnerability, and exposure has been identified as a challenge for IFW implementation. In this study, we begin to address this challenge by developing an understanding of the data needs and uses for IFWs. Using Grounded Theory Methodology, we conducted a series of interviews with users and creators of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data (e.g., warning services, forecasters, meteorologists, hydrologists, emergency managers, data specialists, risk modellers) to understand where these data are needed and used in the Warning Value Chain, a concept used to represent and understand the flow of information amongst actors in the warning chain (Golding et al., 2019). In support of existing research, we found a growing need for creating, gathering, and using impact, vulnerability, and exposure data for IFWs. Furthermore, we identified different approaches for impact forecasting and defining impact thresholds using objective models and subjective impact-oriented discussions depending on the data available. We also provided new insight into a growing need to identify, model, and warn for social and health impacts, which have typically taken a back seat to modelling and forecasting physical and infrastructure impacts. Our findings on the data needs and uses within IFW systems will help guide their development and provide a pathway for identifying specific relevant data sources.

The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

“…Furthermore, the authors point out the existing lack of research that includes the validation of vulnerability assessments, which will be especially challenging for dynamic vulnerability assessments. Finally, within the field of emergency management and impact-based forecasting, the need for dynamic vulnerability data has been underscored (Harrison et al, 2022;Merz et al, 2020). Hence, there is a clear lack of and need for a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of vulnerability and methodological approaches to assess these dynamics.…”

Exploring the potential role of citizen science in the warning value chain for high impact weather

“…This information is edited and disseminated through various channels and used for informed decision-making, e.g., by the public or civil protection (Perrels et al, 2012). The warning value chain has multiple associated data inputs and outputs for each component where hazard, vulnerability, and exposure data are needed in the various stages of the warning chain to ensure it operates effectively (Harrison et al, 2022). Further value can be added by improving the tools and communication used by weather services and their partners, leading to increased lead-time, confidence, local accuracy, and engagement.…”

“…Value can also decrease since each stakeholder in the chain has its own set of objectives, resources, and constraints and, therefore, may not use all available information (Golding et al, 2019). Challenges include lack of data availability, access, and limited data processing and management capabilities, which can become roadblocks in the warning value chain (Potter et al, 2021;Harrison et al, 2022). As experience is gained, new knowledge is produced and incorporated, and more people contribute to the design and operation of the system, these improvements constitute the value cycle.…”

Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones

“…AA triggers are built using hazard-or impact-based forecasts (Harrison et al, 2022). If the forecast exceeds a predetermined threshold (with a certain probability), early actions are implemented to save lives and protect property and livelihoods (Yonson et al, 2018).…”