Identifying the Most Probable Mammal Reservoir Hosts for Monkeypox Virus Based on Ecological Niche Comparisons

Abstract

Previous human cases or epidemics have suggested that Monkeypox virus (MPXV) can be transmitted through contact with animals of African rainforests. Although MPXV has been identified in many mammal species, most are likely secondary hosts, and the reservoir host has yet to be discovered. In this study, we provide the full list of African mammal genera (and species) in which MPXV was previously detected, and predict the geographic distributions of all species of these genera based on museum specimens and an ecological niche modelling (ENM) method. Then, we reconstruct the ecological niche of MPXV using georeferenced data on animal MPXV sequences and human index cases, and conduct overlap analyses with the ecological niches inferred for 99 mammal species, in order to identify the most probable animal reservoir. Our results show that the MPXV niche covers three African rainforests: the Congo Basin, and Upper and Lower Guinean forests. The four mammal species showing the best niche overlap with MPXV are all arboreal rodents, including three squirrels: Funisciurus anerythrus, Funisciurus pyrropus, Heliosciurus rufobrachium, and Graphiurus lorraineus. We conclude that the most probable MPXV reservoir is F. anerythrus based on two niche overlap metrics, the areas of higher probabilities of occurrence, and available data on MPXV detection.

Concurrent Clade I and Clade II Monkeypox Virus Circulation, Cameroon, 1979–2022

“…Alternatively, the 2 ecologic environments potentially host different reservoirs. Several studies aimed to identify presumed MPXV reservoirs ( 31 , 33 , 47 ), but none have emphasized the potential of 2 distinct reservoirs that could be specific to a given ecosystem. Furthermore, MPXV circulation in humans in Cameroon after decades of absence might have resulted from movements of human populations, reservoir hosts, or both from endemic reservoirs in neighboring countries as armed conflicts intensified cross-border movements since 2017.…”

“…Cameroon has 3 major tropical forests: the Congo Basin Forest that extends across the East, South, and Centre regions; the Guinea moist forest in the western and Adamawa regions; and the Cameroonian Highlands forests in the Northwest and Southwest regions. Those forests are crossed by several waterways, including the Sanaga River, the largest river in Cameroon ( 33 – 40 ; J. Thia, master’s thesis, University of Canterbury, 2014, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272494772_The_plight_of_trees_in_disturbed_forest_conservation_of_Montane_Trees_Nigeria ).…”

HIV and mpox: a rapid review

“…Since 2018, sporadic, imported cases have continued to occur in travelers returning to the United States and United Kingdom, with no to minimal onward transmission [13,[24][25][26]. Although MPXV has been identified in many mammal species, most are likely secondary hosts, and the animal reservoir host remains unknown [27][28][29].…”

Evaluation of analytical performance of the STANDARD TM M10 MPX/OPX assay for the simultaneous DNA detection and clade attribution of Monkeypox virus

“…[ 6 ]. Apart from incidental zoonotic transmission [ 7 ], MPXV can be transmitted between humans through respiratory droplets, direct contact with skin lesions and body fluids, and indirect contact with infected materials [ 3 , 8 ].…”