Identifying the precursors of large (M ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in Kamchatka based on data from the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian expert council on earthquake prediction: 1998–2011

Чебров, В. Н.; Салтыков, В. А.; Serafimova, Yu. K.

doi:10.1134/s074204631301003x

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…At the same time, the relatively low statistical estimates of the correlation between the PS1 and the subsequent earthquakes make the PS1 applicable for seismic forecasting only if combined with the other observation data and other precursors. The correlations between the other precursors and the subsequent earthquakes in Kamchatka are also low and not exceeding the values obtained for the PS1 (Serafimova and Kopylova, 2010;Chebrov et al, 2011;Chebrov et al, 2013). This highlights the need for developing new methods for analyzing of the prognostic data for increase the accuracy and reliability of earthquake forecasting.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…The expert councils for earthquake prediction have been working in Kamchatka Krai for many years providing official seismic forecasts based on seismological, geophysical, hydrogeological, and other types of observations (Chebrov et al, 2011;Chebrov et al, 2013). Observation data at the wells of the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky test site are also used in the practice of such expert councils.…”

Section: Observational Data Precursors Cooperation With the Expert mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Long-term data were obtained on the occurrences of the precursory signal PS1 in water-level changes in the E-1 well. The retrospective forecasting 1996-2012 earthquakes on the base of PS1 according the approach (Gusev, 1974;Kopylova, 2001;Chebrov et al, 2011;Chebrov et al, 2013) is presented in Supplementary Materials Table S3.…”

Section: Observational Data Precursors Cooperation With the Expert mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrogeological Earthquake Precursors: A Case Study From the Kamchatka Peninsula

Копылова

Болдина

2020

Front. Earth Sci.

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The relevance of hydrogeological precursors (HGPs) study is justified by the need to obtain reliable information about the spatio-temporal manifestations and the relationships of HGPs with the parameters of subsequent earthquakes for seismic forecasting. In the review the data on repeated manifestations of HGPs before strong earthquakes obtained from long-term observations in five deep wells on the Kamchatka Peninsula (Far East of Russia) are presented. The analysis of the correlation of HGPs occurring in several wells is carried out in comparison with earthquake parameters characterizing both earthquake sources (magnitude, linear size of the source) and the impact of earthquakes in the area of wells (specific energy density in wave, intensity of shaking). It is shown that the manifestation of HGPs in several wells is observed before earthquakes with Mw = 6.6–7.8 at epicentral distances up to the first hundreds of km to observation wells in the near and intermediate zones of the sources with the ratio of the epicentral distances and the source sizes no more than 1–5. A feature of our study was the use of certain types of HGPs in water-level changes for predictive assessments of the strong earthquakes in the Kamchatka Peninsula. The review presents precursors in water-level changes detected in real time and the corresponding earthquake forecasts, which were recognized as successful according to the conclusions of the expert council on earthquake prediction.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Observational Data Precursors Cooperation With the Expert mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Observational Data Precursors Cooperation With the Expert mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrogeological Earthquake Precursors: A Case Study From the Kamchatka Peninsula

Копылова

Болдина

2020

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…С начала 2000-х гг. ГП_I используется для составления и передачи в экспертные советы по прогнозу землетрясений регулярных заключений о возможности сильных землетрясений в Камчатском регионе с упреждением до одного месяца [Chebrov, 2014;Chebrov et al, 2013Chebrov et al, , 2016.…”

Section: изменения уровня воды в скважине е-1unclassified

EFFECTS OF THE JANUARY 30, 2016, Mw=7.2 ZHUPANOVSKY EARTHQUAKE ON THE WATER LEVEL VARIATIONS IN WELLS YUZ-5 AND E-1 IN KAMCHATKA

Болдина¹,

Копылова²

2017

Geodin. tektonofiz.

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This paper describes the water level variations in wells YuZ-5 and E-1 in Kamchatka during the Zhupanovsky earthquake that occurred on January 30, 2016 (Mw=7.2, Н=180 km). The distances from the Zhupanovsky earthquake epicenter to wells E-1 and YuZ-5 were 70 and 80 km, respectively. In well YuZ-5, the water level raised by 9.4 cm during 45 minutes after the seismic wave arrival. This effect was caused by a combination of a co-seismic rise in the water level due to the volumetric compression of the water-bearing rocks during fracturing in the earthquake source and an impulse increase in the fluid pressure near the wellbore during the seismic shocks. We estimated the amplitude of the coseismic water level increase (h=7.3 cm) and the strain value resulting from the volumetric compression of the water-bearing rocks, which is consistent with the estimated value of the coseismic volumetric deformation in the area of the well at the depth of 500m: D1 =-4.510-8. This estimation was based on the model of the dislocation source in the homogeneous isotropic elastic half-space with the parameters of the Zhupanovsky earthquake focal mechanism. After the earthquake, the water level dropped for three months at an amplitude of about ~40 cm. In order to estimate the radius of the well sensitivity to the pressure drop source, we used the model of water level lowering that followed the pressure drop in the aquifer at a distance to the well as a result of the improved filtration properties of the water-bearing rocks after the seismic shocks. The estimated radius of the well sensitivity, R is 450 m. For 3.5 months before the Zhupanovsky earthquake, ~20 cm increase in the water level was observed, which is anomalous in comparison with the average seasonal variations of the water level, as shown by the long-term observations. In our opinion, such a rise in the water level occurred in the process of the earthquake preparation, and can thus be viewed as its precursor. In well E-1, a sequence of water level changes manifested a hydrogeodynamic precursor: the water level dropped at an increased rate for 21 days before the earthquake, and raised at an amplitude of 3.7 cm during one month after the earthquake. The hydrogeodynamic precursor detected in real time gave grounds for forecasting a highly probable strong earthquake at a distance of up to 350 km from wells E-1 within a month. This forecast was reported to the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian Expert Council (KB REC) on January 21, 2016. The Zhupanovsky earthquake occurred on January 30, 2016, and its magnitude, time and location correlated with the prediction. The case of this earthquake shows that the Kamchatka Branch of the Federal Research Center 'Geophysical Survey of RAS' has the system of water level observations and data processing, which is capable of diagnosing (close to real time and retrospectively) different types of hydrogeoseismic variations in the water level in wells in case of strong seismic events, and detecting the hydrogeodynamic precursors of strong earthquakes.

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“…The search for stable markers of seismic events based on the analysis of seismic and electromagnetic signals, despite a fairly long history of study, is constantly in the attention of researchers. The most significant earthquake prediction models were created, for example [1,2]. These models are mainly based on the analysis of very low frequency acoustic oscillations (up to 100 Hz).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Search for anomalies in pulse flows of acoustic and electromagnetic emissions

Senkevich

2020

E3S Web Conf.

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Timely warning of disasters caused by earthquakes ensures life safety. Therefore, the search for markers of pre-seismic events preceding earthquakes remains an important research task. The article presents experimental methods for assessing seismic activity in the Kamchatka region based on the results of processing and analysis of geoacoustic and electromagnetic emission signals. The research is aimed at detecting anomalies in quantitative and qualitative indicators that characterize the pulse streams of acoustic emission of near-surface rocks and electromagnetic emission in the surface layer of the atmosphere. Signal processing and analysis are carried out using special algorithms that take into account the structural features of the variety of pulse shapes and their distribution over time.

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Identifying the precursors of large (M ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in Kamchatka based on data from the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian expert council on earthquake prediction: 1998–2011

Cited by 11 publications

References 4 publications

Hydrogeological Earthquake Precursors: A Case Study From the Kamchatka Peninsula

Hydrogeological Earthquake Precursors: A Case Study From the Kamchatka Peninsula

EFFECTS OF THE JANUARY 30, 2016, Mw=7.2 ZHUPANOVSKY EARTHQUAKE ON THE WATER LEVEL VARIATIONS IN WELLS YUZ-5 AND E-1 IN KAMCHATKA

Search for anomalies in pulse flows of acoustic and electromagnetic emissions

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