Identifying trajectories of adolescent smoking: An application of latent growth mixture modeling.

Abstract

The goal of the current study was to identify discrete longitudinal patterns of change in adolescent smoking using latent growth mixture modeling. Five distinct longitudinal patterns were identified. A group of early rapid escalators was characterized by early escalation (at age 13) that rapidly increased to heavy smoking. A pattern characterized by occasional puffing up until age 15, at which time smoking escalated to moderate levels was also identified (late moderate escalators). Another group included adolescents who, after age 15, began to escalate slowly in their smoking to light (0.5 cigarettes per month) levels (late slow escalators). Finally, a group of stable light smokers (those who smoked 1-2 cigarettes per month) and a group of stable puffers (those who smoked only a few puffs per month) were also identified. The stable puffer group was the largest group and represented 25% of smokers.

Similarities and Differences of Longitudinal Phenotypes Across Alternate Indices of Alcohol Involvement: A Methodologic Comparison of Trajectory Approaches.

“…For applications of this technique in the substance use area, see Chassin et al (2002), Colder et al (2001Colder et al ( , 2002, and Li, Barrera, Hops, and Fisher (2002).…”

Conjoint Developmental Trajectories of Young Adult Alcohol and Tobacco Use.

“…We examined heavy alcohol use rather than alcohol quantity or frequency because heavy drinking increases risk for onset (or continuation) of alcohol problems and alcohol use disorders (Wechsler & Austin, 1998) NIH-PA Author Manuscript NIH-PA Author Manuscript NIH-PA Author Manuscript 41% of college students and 34-42% of those aged 21 to 26 binge drank at least once in the past 2 weeks (Johnston et al, 2004). We chose smoking quantity because "regular smoking" is inconsistently defined (White et al, 2002) and because smoking frequency data were not available in this sample.We used a mixture modeling procedure (Jones, Nagin, & Roeder, 2001;Muthén, 2001;Muthén et al, 2002;Muthén & Muthén, 2000;Nagin, 1999; for applications of this technique in the substance use area, see Colder et al, 2001;Li, Barrera, Hops, & Fisher, 2002). General growth mixture modeling is a form of latent growth modeling, but with the addition of an unobserved categorical variable that models variability via discrete homogeneous classes of individuals (rather than via a parameter measuring variability around the latent growth factors).…”

Characteristics associated with rapid transition to tobacco dependence in youth

“…Longitudinal trajectories of young novice smokers have distinguished classes of smokers with rapid increases in smoking intensity (Colder et al, 2001;Karp et al, 2005;Stanton et al, 2004) and increases in smoking frequency have been associated with tobacco dependence in adolescents (O'Loughlin et al, 2003). Yet very few of the longitudinal trajectory studies include tobacco dependence predictions shortly after onset of use.…”

“…Prior epidemiologic data suggests that some adolescents rapidly begin heavy regular smoking after tobacco initiation (Colder et al, 2001;Stanton, Flay, Colder, & Mehta, 2004). The median length of time for the first expression of problems and dependence due to tobacco use has been estimated to be 12 months (Ridenour, Lanza, Donny, & Clark, 2006).…”