Ideology, Partisanship, and Change

Abstract

This paper analyzes changes in the Croatian party system in the 1990-2016 period by looking at trends in the ideological makeup of voters of the main center-right (HDZ) and center-left (SDP) parties. An assessment of changes in voter self-placement on a left-right scale has shown a gradual increase in the ideological distance among voters of these parties. Further, the paper detected a trend towards an increase in the share of self-declared far-right voters among HDZ voters and far-left voters among SDP voters. In addition, an analysis of categorical ideological identification has demonstrated that, on average, two thirds of HDZ voters were Christian Democrats, while two thirds of SDP voters were Social Democrats. However, among all Christian Democrats, an average of 55 percent voted for the HDZ, while just shy of 60 percent of Social Democrats voted for the SDP. Finally, a logistic regression analysis has confirmed the importance of the cultural dimension of voter behavior in Croatia. Religiosity levels, as well as left-right self-placement serve as rather good predictors of a vote for the HDZ and the SDP, with the model showing greater explanatory strength for HDZ voters. In conclusion, the observed trends in ideological characteristics of HDZ and SDP voters could serve as pointers of underlying shifts in patterns of party competition and offer clues to the increased instability of the Croatian party system following the 2015 and 2016 parliamentary elections.

Tipping Points in the Croatian Political Sentiment: When, Why, and Does the Economy Have Anything to Do with It?

“…Similar argumentation should be valid for political polarisation. Although our polarisation proxy is significant only in a small number of specifications in Table 3, we see polarisation as an important piece of the puzzle in the relationship between the economy and political sentiment (Henjak, 2007;Henjak et al, 2013;Raos, 2019). Our inability to establish their significant effects on political sentiment can probably be attributed to the methodological issue.…”

Old Cleavages and New Parties

“…Bitne strukturne promjene u kompetitivnoj dinamici stranačkog sustava dogodile su se kao posljedica rezultata parlamentarnih izbora održanih 2015. i 2016. godine. Tada je dominantna bipolarna dinamika stranačkog natjecanja, koja je karakterizirala hrvatski stranački sustav od početka ovog stoljeća (Henjak, Zakošek i Čular, 2013;Jou, 2010;Zakošek i Čular, 2004;Raos, 2019;Grdešić, 2013;2021;Henjak, 2011;, zbog pojave novih stranaka dovedena u pitanje.…”

“…Treći trend odnosi se na postupno, ali kontinuirano smanjenje izborne participacije i pojavu jasnog socioekonomskog profila izbornih apstinenata, koji uz to imaju i poseban odnos prema politici, različit od građana koji glasaju (Henjak, 2017;Raos, 2019). Izborni apstinenti su prema dosadašnjim studijama zastupljeniji među građanima mlađe dobi, izloženiji su ekonomskom riziku, slabije su politički informirani, imaju manji osjećaj osobne političke efikasnosti, odnosno negativnu percepciju vlastite mogućnosti utjecaja na politiku, manje su autoritarni i konzervativni nego prosječni birači, ali su znatno skloniji populističkim stavovima (Henjak, 2017;Raos, 2020).…”

Socijaldemokracija u Hrvatskoj

“…Ideološko-kulturna dimenzija se pak ponajbolje može iskazati kroz odnos prema religiji i stav o odlučivanju o prekidu trudnoće (usp. Raos, 2019).…”